July 1, 2011: Storms Possible On Sunday

Note: Today’s update does not include an updated 5-Day Forecast. The updated forecast will be posted early tomorrow morning.

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As a high pressure is currently covering the region, today brought dry conditions so far today once again, with temperatures once again the same as the last few days, currently in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the tri-state area. By tomorrow, a weakening ridge will move into the area, bringing warmer temperatures reaching the upper 80s in NYC, and while most days will be dry, there is a risk of strong thunderstorms on Sunday, which will be capable of producing locally heavy rain.

Weekend Outlook:

Saturday will be another dry day, but as the high pressure exits the region and a cold front near the Midwest starts to move towards the area, the current dry and mild pattern will end for now. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further west with a southwest wind, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut with a south wind.

Sunday: The ridge currently in the central US bringing a widespread heat wave well into the northern US is expected to weaken throughout the day tomorrow and Sunday, but will still bring 850 mb temperatures in the 16-20c range when it reaches the area briefly on Sunday, enough to bring temperatures into the mid to upper 80s in the immediate NYC area once again, and if there is enough sunshine through the early afternoon hours, temperatures may reach the 90 degree mark in NE NJ.

The cold front will reach the area by Sunday evening. Even though bulk shear is not supprtive for severe weather, there are decent lift index and CAPE values, enough to result in a low risk of strong thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening, especially after 2-4 PM. While at this time, these storms are more likely to be scattered than widespread, with precipitable water values expected to be near 2 inches, these storms will be capable of producing heavy rain with localized flash flooding in places that they hit. Stay tuned for more information on Sunday’s storms with tomorrow morning’s update.

Next Week: Warmth Continues

Behind Sunday’s cold front, temperatures will slightly cool down as a slightly cooler air mass will move in. The difference in temperatures will be barely noticeable, as temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 80s across the area with a few upper 80s in the immediate NYC area. Similar temperatures are expected for Tuesday, but by Wednesday, temperatures are likely to warm up once again, reaching the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further west and in the upper 70s to mid 80s east of NYC. There is some uncertainty for mid-late next week, but at this time, it appears that these temperatures will continue through Thursday, with a cold front moving through around Thursday or Friday, followed by cooler temperatures for next weekend. Stay tuned for more information on next week.

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