Below, severe weather updates will be posted on the storms affecting the area. Click on the short term outlook graphics to the right of each post to view them in a larger size.
6:55 PM: Strong thunderstorms continue to affect Long Island, with widespread heavy rain, gusty winds, and some hail. Meanwhile, thunderstorms have popped up over New York City, with a strong thunderstorm forming near Jersey City. This storm will move into Brooklyn and southern Queens, producing heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. Meanwhile, widespread light to moderate rain and thunder will affect southern Connecticut, SE NY, and far northern New Jersey.
6:30 PM: There are currently several storms affecting the area. The line of storms previously in southern Connecticut is now over the Long Island Sound, and will continue to push SSE through Long Island over the next 1/2 hour, producing heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail.
The second storm which previously affected northern Westchester, SE Rockland and eastern Bergen counties is now near Yonkers, NY and will continue to move ESE, joining the main line of storms. Another strong storm is near Paterson and is moving east, producing hail up to 1 inch. This storm will affect central/southern Bergen county in NJ, northern Manhattan, and Bronx.
6:05 PM: **ALERT:** The storms in SE NY have changed directions. The center of the storm is now near Tappan, NY, right along the NY/NJ border, and is moving southeast. This storm is capable of producing hail up to 1.5 inch as well, with heavy rainfall and gusty winds also expected. This storm will drop southeast/SSE, moving through central/southern Westchester, Bronx, and Nassau counties over the next 1/2 hour.
5:55 PM: Several severe thunderstorms are currently approaching or affecting the area. The first storm is currnetly near northern Westchester county and is moving ESE, capable of producing up to 1.5″ hail, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. This storm will affect SW Connecticut, including Stamford, within the next hour.
Two less significant storms are currently in northwestern and north central NJ, both moving ESE as well. These storms will produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and the potential for small hail.
5:00 PM: Moderate Risk of Severe Weather
Under mostly sunny skies and mostly WSW winds, temperatures surged well into the 90s across parts of the area, even reaching 101 degrees in Newark! Cloud cover has increased over the area, preventing temperatures from rising much more. The heat will end tonight, but this will come in the form of strong to severe thunderstorms that will affect parts of the area this evening.
Severe weather risk: Slight / Moderate
Severe weather parameters are supportive across the area, with CAPE up to 4000 and lift index up to -10. While the parameters may indicate that the area will see a moderate risk of severe weather, and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the area under a moderate risk, places from NYC and further west are looking at a lower risk of severe weather. Looking through current observations, storms in southeastern NY are consolidating into an area of severe thunderstorms. When this happens, areas to the south of the consolidated area of storms may see less activity, and in this case, the NYC area is to the south of these storms. This can be seen in Orange county, NY, where previously severe thunderstorms have weakened to no more than light showers and thunderstorms.
NYC Area severe risk: Considering the above, I placed a moderate risk of severe weather in New England, where severe thunderstorms are currently active. From NYC and further west, I placed a 30% risk of severe weather, as the set up still indicates that severe storms will affect the area, but despite the risk, keeping the previously mentioned points in mind, some places in the area may see less activity than other parts of the area.
The highest risk of severe weather in the NYC tri-state area is in southern Connecticut, where storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, moderate to large hail, and the potential for an isolated tornado. From NYC and further west, less activity is expected, but some severe storms will still affect the area, some of them capable of producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small to moderate hail.
Stay tuned for storm updates that will be posted throughout this evening covering these storms.