June 4, 2011: More Heat Next Week

Important Notes:

***From tomorrow through Thursday, June 16, limited updates will be posted, unless any severe weather event takes place, when more frequent updates will be posted. This does not mean that no updates will be posted, as I will continue to update the blog during this time frame, but most updates will not be in full length. Some full discussions will be posted in that time frame, but otherwise, daily full updates will resume on Friday, June 17th.***

In addition to the above, there are also changes with the long range outlooks. The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook will still be posted tomorrow, but instead of a full June outlook, a medium-long range outlook will be posted either tomorrow or later in the coming week, along with a preview of the expectation for this summer.

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After a strong cold front cleared the region on Wednesday, bringing some storms to the area and deadly tornadoes in Massachusetts, a much colder air mass moved into the area. Thursday night was not as cold as originally expected, but instead, Friday night was colder, with temperatures as low as the mid 40s inland this morning. Temperatures yesterday and today were in the lower to upper 70s across the area, with mostly sunny skies yesterday and mostly cloudy skies today.

Tomorrow will bring mainly cloudy skies again with colder temperatures due to a risk of rain, but Monday will bring drier conditions with less cloud cover. Monday and Tuesday will bring comfortable conditions to the area, but a large ridge to the west of the region will allow heat to spill into the region once again for Wednesday and Thursday, with high temperatures potentially returning into the lower to mid 90s once again for parts of the area.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Mostly cloudy skies are expected tomorrow once again. Even though most of the day is expected to be dry, scattered showers are a possibility, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s for Long Island and southern Connecticut, with lower to upper 70s from NYC and further west. A southeast wind is expected.

Next Week: Comfortable Start, Hot And Stormy Ending

Monday and Tuesday will bring slightly warmer conditions to the area once again. Partly sunny skies are expected on Monday with high temperatures returning into the upper 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further west, though the risk of an isolated shower cannot be ruled out. On Tuesday, warmer conditions will return along with a southwest wind, as high temperatures climb into the lower to mid 80s for most of northern NJ, SE NY, and NYC. Again, the risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening hours cannot be ruled out.

By Wednesday, however, a very warm air mass in the central US will begin to spread into the region. This will not be a long lasting warm spell, but in the brief time frame that temperatures do warm up, they will do so significantly, reaching the 90s in parts of the area once again. There is some uncertainty with the extent of the warmth on Wednesday, with the GFS model bringing temperatures into the lower 90s from NYC and further west and the NAM keeping colder temperatures trapped over the Northeast. Both solutions may be on the extreme sides, and at this time, I am going with a solution slightly closer to the GFS than the NAM, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further west, with lower to mid 80s in parts of Long Island/southern Connecticut. Wednesday’s temperatures are still uncertain, and may be raised or lowered with tomorrow’s update.

On Thursday, 850 mb temperatures are modeled to reach 20 degrees celsius around the area, which on a dry sunny day, are capable of bringing surface temperatures well into the 90s. As this is still in the medium range, the expected 850 mb temperatures could change, but should there be no significant changes with the expected set up, temperatures may be capable of reaching the lower to mid 90s once again from NYC and further west on Thursday. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach the region, and while the timing is uncertain, severe weather may be a possibility for Thursday evening. Stay tuned for more information on the heat and storms for the middle of next week.

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