June 27, 2011: Some Storms Tomorrow

As with yesterday, the area saw another dry and comfortable day, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and average temperatures. A cold front approaching the area tomorrow will bring the risk of scattered storms tomorrow evening which may produce locally heavy rain, but dry and comfortable conditions return by Wednesday once again. This time, the nice conditions won’t last for long, as a ridge moving into the region will bring temperatures well into the 80s and potentially the lower 90s along with increasing humidity.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tuesday will bring temperatures similar to those of today, reaching the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west and the upper 70s to lower 80s east of NYC. The main difference, however, is that mostly cloudy skies are expected throughout the day becoming cloudy by the late afternoon. As a cold front approaches the area, scattered thunderstorms will move into the area from eastern Pennsylvania, and while these storms will stay below severe levels, they will be capable of producing locally heavy rain and gusty winds. The peak of the storms will be around the evening into the early overnight hours, with most of the area expected to by dry by 12 AM.
Wednesday – Friday: Dry Conditions Return

Behind the cold front, a west/WNW wind will return by Wednesday with similar temperatures, reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area. These conditions will last through Friday as the low pressure that will bring Tuesday’s cold front through becomes a cut off low northeast of Maine, locking a trough over the Northeast. By Saturday, a strong ridge in the central US will spread towards the region, and while it will weaken by that time and it will be blocked from reaching parts of the Northeast due to the trough in place, it appears that it may be able to affect the area for a brief period of time.
Next Weekend Into Next Week:
With the heat moving into the region around Saturday followed by a cold front around Sunday/Monday, the immediate NYC area is likely to see a day or two of temperatures in the upper 80s to potentially lower 90s. It is a possibility that history repeats itself and the heat fails to reach the area, resulting in stormy conditions and temperatures mostly in the 70s to lower 80s, and while at this time, this solution is not as likely, it will be watched in case it becomes more likely. There is some uncertainty for early-mid next week, ranging from the GGEM which brings a strong trough to the ECMWF which has the heat lasting through most of next week. Given the pattern we are currently in, the ECMWF’s solution is less likely to verify, and cooler temperatures may return by early-mid next week.

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