June 25, 2011: Strong Storms Possible Tuesday

With the low pressure that has affected the area over the last several days finally out of the region, today brought warmer temperatures to the area, peaking in the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west, and in the lower to mid 70s across most of Long Island and southern Connecticut with upper 70s closer to NYC. Most of the storms today stayed well north of the area, in New England, but some weak showers did affect Westchester county.

Temperatures will remain in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the area tomorrow and through most of next week, and while most of the week will be dry, there is the potential for strong or severe thunderstorms on Tuesday evening and night as a negatively tilted low pressure moves through the region. Meanwhile, a massive ridge will develop in the central US mid-late next week, eventually spreading into the area and bringing the potential for temperatures next weekend to reach 90 degrees for the first time since June 8th.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will be another nice day across the area. With partly sunny skies and a WNW wind, high temperatures will rise once again into the upper 70s to mid 80s from NYC and further west, and the mid 70s across most of Long Island and southern Connecticut with upper 70s closer to NYC. Dry conditions are expected tomorrow, and even though the 18z NAM run shows thunderstorms developing tomorrow afternoon, it is an outlier solution for tomorrow.

Next Week: Mainly Dry, Storms On Tuesday

The week will start with mostly to partly sunny skies and dry conditions. Temperatures will slightly warm up on Monday, with more widespread mid 80s from NYC and further west, and Long Island/southern Connecticut will warm up as well, with widespread upper 70s along with some lower 80s away from the immediate coast.

By Tuesday, however, cloud cover will increase as a negatively tilted low pressure moves into the region. Mainly cloudy skies are expected with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s from NYC and further west and the lower to upper 70s in Long Island/southern Connecticut with a SSE wind. There will be some instability with decent severe weather parameters, and as a result, thunderstorms will move into the area from west to east during the late afternoon and evening hours, some of them potentially strong or severe, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Storms will continue through the early overnight hours, with drier conditions by Wednesday morning. Stay tuned for more updates on Tuesday’s potential severe weather.

Other than a weak trough moving into the area, the rest of the week will not bring any significant weather into the area, with dry conditions expected along with partly sunny skies and temperatures generally in the mid 70s to lower 80s in Long Island/southern Connecticut and the upper 70s to mid 80s from NYC and further west. By next weekend, however, a significantly warmer air mass will spread into the region, and while it will only be brief, lasting for 3 days at most, from July 2nd to July 4th, models are showing the potential for 850 mb temperatures to reach 20 degrees celsius. This is still in the longer range, and it may be colder than currently expected as we have seen with previous warm spell potentials which have failed to verify, but with a massive ridge in the central US spreading towards the region, at least some heat is expected to reach the area. In the warmer case scenario, temperatures may reach the lower 90s in parts of the area next weekend, followed by the return of seasonable temperatures by the middle of next week. Stay tuned for more information on the potential heat.

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