June 23, 2011: Warmth Returns Next Week

Note: This update will be split. A discussion for the next week was posted tonight. On Friday morning, an update on the tropics will be posted, and the 5-Day Forecast and Long Range Forecasts pages will be updated as well.

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As a warm front remained stalled around the area, today brought cooler temperatures along with more strong thunderstorms. Flash flooding affected sections of north central New Jersey, Rockland/Westchester counties in NY, and southwestern Connecticut, as 1.5 to 3 inches of rain fell in a relatively short period of time. The cold front will finally move through the area tomorrow, bringing another round of afternoon thunderstorms with drier conditions returning this weekend, but the warmth will return next week along with another severe weather potential.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

As previously mentioned, the cold front will move through the area tomorrow. As a result, the wind will transition from the ESE more towards the south. Along with the cold front, however, comes a risk of severe weather. Mainly cloudy skies are expected, though some breaks in the cloud cover may be possible in the late morning. By the early afternoon hours, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and move towards the area. The best risk of storms will be from NYC and further north and west, with storms once again capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall, capable of producing localized flash flooding. High temperatures will be warmer than today, reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further west, and the lower to mid 70s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.

Weekend Outlook: Drier, More Sunshine

With the cold front out of the area by Saturday, more sunshine is expected along with a WSW wind. These factors will allow temperatures to actually be warmer than those of tomorrow across the area despite the cold front having moved through. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further west, and the mid to upper 70s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. A few mid 80s may be possible just west and southwest of NYC. There is still the risk for isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, however, especially to the north of NYC, but most of these storms will stay in New England.

Sunday will be the first full dry day since Tuesday. With the storm mostly out of the region, partly sunny skies will return into the area. With a W/WNW wind expected along with similar 850 mb temperatures to those of Saturday, temperatures will be similar to those of Saturday.

Next Week: Warmth Starts To Return

The worst of the heat will stay bottled up in the central US for now, where a massive ridge will be developing throughout next week, but some warmth will spread into the area. With warmer 850 mb temperatures spreading into the region, Monday will bring partly sunny skies with slightly warmer temperatures, reaching the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west, and the upper 70s to potentially lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.

The warmth will continue to spread into the area, with 850 mb temperatures expected to be near 18c on Tuesday, but a cold front will keep this surge of warmth very brief. There is some slight uncertainty with the high temperatures, but in the warmer case scenario, highs may reach the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further west. With supportive CAPE/LI values and decent bulk shear and lapse rates, the potential is there for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms to affect parts of the area on Tuesday. The timing is still uncertain, however, and it is possible that the front may be delayed until Wednesday. Stay tuned for more information on the potential storms on Tuesday and/or Wednesday.

Longer Range: By the late week, temperatures will stay in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area behind the cold front, but will begin to warm up on Friday. More significant heat may return into the area next weekend, around July 2-4, which will be discussed in more information with tomorrow morning’s update in the Long Range Forecasts section.

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