June 22, 2011 Storm Updates

Below, storm updates will be posted for the severe thunderstorms currently affecting the area.

**Note: Short term outlook graphics will be posted with the current radar image from the NWS attached. Click on the images to view them in a larger size.**

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10:00 PM: Storms Return Tomorrow

A warm front currently stalled just north of the area began a 3-day stretch of occasional showers and thunderstorms. Today proved to be a wet day especially north of NYC, where radar estimates show anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain in interior SE NY and locally up to 2 inches in parts of northern New Jersey. Southern Long Island and Bergen County ended up as the dry areas today, seeing less than 1/4 inch.

Tomorrow will be similar to today in some ways. Some storm are possible tomorrow morning, but are unlikely to be as strong as this morning’s storms in the Hudson Valley. By the evening, with instability in place, strong thunderstorms are expected to develop once again, especially from NYC and further west and north. Friday’s forecast is the same from this morning, but temperatures are a little uncertain, as the main models show high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s while the NAM has nearly 90 degrees in NE NJ. At this time, I went with a blend of both, expecting highs in the mid 80s from NYC and further west with a few upper 80s possible in the immediate NYC area. Scattered showers and storms are possible on Saturday afternoon and evening, especially north of NYC, and Sunday will be dry.

Long Range Update: The potential heat for early July may not be as significant as originally thought. The long range forecast will be revised tomorrow.
Tropics Update: With Beatriz gone, having collapsed from an 80 mph hurricane to barely an area of clouds producing 20-30 mph winds in only 12 hours, attention now turns towards the Atlantic. The GFS and GGEM models continue to show signals for a tropical cyclone developing in the Gulf of Mexico next week, staying in the southern and western Gulf of Mexico, and according to the GFS, potentially targeting Texas and Louisiana. This is still in the medium-long range, but the potential is there for a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

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6:20 PM: The severe thunderstorm previously in western Morris county is currently near eastern Morris county. The tornado warning has been cancelled for this storm as it has weakened, and will continue to weaken in the short term. This storm is moving towards Jersey City and Manhattan, but will likely weaken to a small area of moderate showers and thunderstorms within the next 1/2 hour as it reaches these areas.

The storm in Bergen county has weakened as well, producing some light rain at most. The only storm that has not weakened yet is in western Orange county and moving ESE, producing heavy rain and gusty winds. The storms across northern NJ will continue to weaken as they move towards Long Island.

5:40 PM: ***URGENT*** The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Warning for western Morris county. A severe storm currently in west central Morris county is capable of producing a tornado. This storm is producing strong wind gusts and potentially moderate hail as well. This storm is moving towards the ESE, and within the next 1/2 hour is expected to cross Morris county and enter western Essex county. Should the storm continue on its current path, Jersey City and southern Manhattan may be in the path of this storm within the next hour.

In addition to the severe thunderstorm, there are three other strong thunderstorms; one of them is currently entering western Orange county, another one is near Patterson and will move NE towards central Bergen county, and a third storm is currently developing in northern Somerset county but will merge with the severe Morris county cell. These storms are capable of producing strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and potentially small hail.

11:45 AM: Earlier this morning, a round of strong thunderstorms moved east through the northern parts of the area, focusing on Orange and Rockland counties with heavy rain and strong winds. Some rain fell in northern NJ, NYC, and the eastern parts of the area, but most of the rain stayed to the northwest of NYC. These storms are still in southern Connecticut, and will continue to most east, affecting southern Connecticut and extreme northern Long Island with heavy rain and gusty winds. This is just the start of what will be an active ending to this week.

Tonight: Mainly dry conditions are expected in the early to mid afternoon hours with an isolated shower or thunderstorm expected. Late this afternoon, however, strong thunderstorms associated with the warm front stuck near the area are expected to form in eastern Pennsylvania and move east, affecting the area during the evening hours, approximately between 5-8 PM. The worst of the storms will stay mostly from NYC and further west, but will produce rain in Long Island and southern Connecticut as well. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and gusty winds. The rest of the overnight hours behind these storms should stay dry, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

Tomorrow: The latest models are hinting at potential storm activity tomorrow morning. The best risk of storms should stay to the north and northwest of NYC. Mostly cloudy skies are expected late tomorrow morning into early tomorrow afternoon with temperatures slowly rising into the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west and the upper 70s east of NYC.

By the mid afternoon hours, strong thunderstorms are expected to once again approach the area from the west. These storms will continue through the evening and early overnight hours, bringing the potential for heavy rain and gusty winds. Drier conditions are expected again tomorrow night with scattered thunderstorms possible.

Friday and Saturday: By Friday, there is more uncertainty with the exact timing of the storms as this is in the longer range, but warmer temperatures are expected ahead of the cold front, potentially reaching the upper 80s just west of NYC. Strong thunderstorms are expected once again during the evening and early overnight hours, with cloudy skies and an isolated thunderstorm otherwise. Saturday will bring more sunshine with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected, though an isolated thunderstorm is possible in the afternoon and evening hours, especially north of NYC.

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