June 20, 2011: Wet, Stormy Ending To Week

The area saw another nice day today, with partly sunny skies observed with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area and a few mid 70s in Long Island/southern Connecticut. An area of heavy rain affected the Mid Atlantic this morning, but this area of rain stayed well to the south of the area with no direct impact.

That area of rain, however, will have an indirect impact on the pattern of the area. The low pressure associated with this area of rain, currently off the coast of the Mid Atlantic, brought a cold front into Virginia and North Carolina, keeping the warm front to the southwest of the area. The warm front will eventually reach the area, but it will not be able to completely move through, keeping the area stuck under cloudy skies and frequent showers and thunderstorms through the end of this week and into Saturday.
Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will be the last comfortable and dry day for a while. Partly sunny skies are expected once again with a southwest wind, with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west and the mid to upper 70s in Long Island/southern Connecticut with a few lower 80s possible. There is the potential for an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening hours, but the higher risk of storms will wait until Wednesday.
Wednesday – Saturday: Cloudy, Wet

Wednesday will bring mostly cloudy skies to the area as the warm front tries to move through. With the warm front, there is a low risk of severe weather on Wednesday, especially west and south of NYC. Regardless of whether the area sees severe weather or not, with precipitable water values near 2 inches, storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. High temperatures originally were expected to reach the upper 80s to potentially lower 90s, but there were changes with the set up as the models trended towards a negative tilt to the low pressure, which will prevent the warm front from making it much further north than NYC, if it even passes NYC at all. High temperatures as a result will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s from NYC and further west, and in the mid to upper 70s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.
On Thursday, the warm front is expected to drift south of NYC as a cold front before stalling to the south of the area. As a result, the area will be under a stable air mass with cloudy skies, an east wind, and occasional showers with rumbles of thunder possible but no severe thunderstorms. High temperatures will be colder as well, in the mid to upper 70s from NYC and further west and the lower to mid 70s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.
The warm front will not be able to move north of the area, and Friday will bring conditions similar to Thursday. The main difference is that temperatures will be slightly warmer, with lower 80s in the immediate NYC area. By Saturday, cloud cover is expected to begin clearing, with partly cloudy skies expected, but scattered thunderstorms are expected once again in the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will continue to slightly warm up, potentially reaching the mid 80s in the immediate NYC area. Dry conditions will finally return by Sunday and Monday with high temperatures staying in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area.
Tropics: Beatriz Almost A Hurricane

East Pacific: Tropical Storm Beatriz intensified throughout the day, and is now a 70 mph tropical storm. Beatriz will likely be upgraded to a weak Category 1 hurricane tonight, moving WNW with its center staying just off the coast of Mexico. By Wednesday, Beatriz will encounter lower sea surface temperatures and higher shear, causing Beatriz to start weakening. By next weekend, it is expected to weaken into a remnant low.

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