June 16, 2011: Rain Tonight, Tomorrow

**Reminder: Full discussions will be posted daily starting tomorrow. The 5-Day Forecast page will be updated for the entire area as well, and will be updated daily starting tomorrow. The 2011 Atlantic hurricane outlook and a preview of this summer will be posted early next week as well.**

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Tonight – Tomorrow: Rain, Possibly Heavy

Looking at the latest radar, thunderstorms are approaching New Jersey from eastern Pennsylvania and eastern Maryland. These storms will continue to move ENE, reaching the area later tonight. While it is still uncertain exactly what these storms do, the overall idea is there for these storms to reach the area tonight, bringing the potential for locally heavy rainfall. The NAM is the wettest model, showing slightly over 1 inch of rain, which at this time is a wet outlier. Rainfall amounts generally up to 1/4 inch are expected in places that are affected by these storms, but locally higher amounts up to 1/2 inch are possible.

A low pressure will approach the area tomorrow, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms into the Northeast, focusing over New Jersey. These storms will not be severe, but will be capable of producing locally heavy rain, with amounts locally up to 1 inch possible. These storms will weaken by the evening hours while becoming more isolated.

Weekend Outlook:

Saturday will be the nicest day this weekend. With partly cloudy skies and the risk of an isolated shower, high temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 70s in Long Island/southern Connecticut and the upper 70s to mid 80s from NYC and further west along with a WSW wind.

By Sunday, however, rain returns into the forecast. A weak low pressure to the south of the area will move east, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area along with colder temperatures, likely reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s in NYC. The NAM and GGEM show heavy rain on Sunday, with high temperatures staying below the 70 degree mark, but at this time, I am considering both solutions as likely wet outliers, and went with a drier scenario. It is still a possibility that the wetter scenarios verify, but at this time this solution is unlikely.

Next Week: Warming Up, Hot And Stormy End

On Monday and Tuesday, widespread heat is expected in the central United States, but a high pressure offshore will prevent the heat from reaching the area at first. Monday and Tuesday will both bring mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s across the area. By Wednesday, however, as the main low pressure moved towards the Great Lakes, the warm front will begin to move towards the area, pushing the warmth into parts of the Mid Atlantic. There are still minor timing differences with the models, but at this time, Thursday appears to be the warmest day, when parts of the area may potentially reach the 90s once again, with upper 80s expected otherwise. The cold front is expected to move through around Thursday/Friday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms, and with this type of set up, severe weather may be a possibility. Stay tuned for more information on this time frame.

Tropics: Signs Of Activity In Atlantic, Pacific

Atlantic: At this time, the Atlantic Ocean is quiet, but the GFS model continues to hint at potential tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico late next week. Most models do not show this feature, but it is possible that activity begins to pick up by the last few days of June.

Pacific: After last week’s powerful Hurricane Adrian, another tropical disturbance in the eastern Pacific may become a tropical system. Invest 92 was activated today south of Guatemala. This invest is under a favorable environment, with little to no dry air, low shear, and high sea surface temperatures (SSTs). For the short term, development will likely be slow as this invest is still disorganized, but by next week, it is possible that this invest may develop into the second named storm of the East Pacific hurricane season.

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