June 12, 2011 Morning Update

12 PM: Colder Than Previously Expected Today

Storms in Pennsylvania moved into the area yesterday evening, but failed to produce any widespread precipitation across the area, with most of the rain staying to the north and south of NYC. The warm front was expected to move through the area last night, but the warm front unexpectedly failed to move through, and instead even went further south, reaching southern NJ as a cold front. This will keep chilly temperatures across the area today once again.

An ENE wind is expected to transition into a SSE wind later today, with mainly cloudy skies and occasional breaks in the cloud cover, especially southwest of NYC. High temperatures will be in the lower to upper 60s in Long Island and southern Connecticut, and in the upper 60s to mid 70s from NYC and further west. Some thunderstorms may approach the area late this evening, but they will weaken once moving into New Jersey as they reach the stable air mass, as yesterday’s storms did, and it is possible that they may dissipate by the time that they reach NYC, with the best risk of thunderstorms today west of NYC, towards western NJ.

Next Week: Colder temperatures will stick around through next week. Monday will be one of the warmer days of the week, with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 70s across most of the area and mid to upper 70s in the immediate NYC area under partly cloudy skies. An isolated shower or two may be possible, but most of the day will stay dry.

By Tuesday, more clouds and rain return into the forecast. A cut off low stuck off the coast of New England will keep a cool air mass in place, with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers expected in the area. High temperatures will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the area, with the coldest temperatures further northeast into southern CT, and the warmest temperatures near NYC.

Wednesday and Thursday will be slightly warmer and drier. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Wednesday, with lower 80s expected to return into the immediate NYC area by Thursday. There is uncertainty with the exact scenario on Friday and Saturday, but it appears that a low pressure should approach the area, bringing more rain chances. Stay tuned for another update tomorrow discussing the longer range.

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