8:15 AM: An unexpected area of heavy rain and thunderstorms affected parts of the area early this morning, with radar estimates showing a general 1/2 to 1 inch of rain from north central NJ and further ENE into NYC and southwestern Connecticut. Currently, the area is seeing scattered showers, some of them producing heavy rain, but there is no widespread rain covering the area yet, with an area of heavy rain in eastern Pennsylvania weakening as it is moving towards the PA/NJ border.
With the warm front mostly to the south of the area, today will bring chilly temperatures compared to the average and much colder temperatures compared to what we’ve seen over the last several days. An east/ESE wind is expected, which will bring temperatures only into the lower to mid 70s for NYC and northern NJ and into the mid 60s to lower 70s for SE NY, Long Island and southern Connecticut. Occasional showers are expected today, some of them producing locally heavy rainfall.
Tonight: More rain is expected to affect the area tonight as the warm front struggles to move through. A high pressure in New England will prevent the warm front from completely moving through, with temperatures early tonight stuck in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area, but later tonight, as the high pressure in New England shifts east, the warm front will be able to lift through NYC and northern NJ, though it may fail to reach parts of Long Island and southern Connecticut.
Tomorrow: With northern NJ in the warm sector of the storm, temperatures tomorrow morning will begin to rise with a SW wind, with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s. Meanwhile, Long Island and southern Connecticut will see lower temperatures, reaching the lower to mid 70s, with a few upper 70s possible in western Long Island/SW CT. The cold front will move through around the late afternoon/evening hours, and with some instability expected, there is the potential for a weak squall line to form and move through the western and central parts of the area tomorrow in the late afternoon, bringing the potential for locally heavy rain.
Stay tuned for more information later today on this storm and the outlook for next week.