June 1, 2011: Review Of Today’s Storms, Week Ahead

This year so far has been a big severe weather producer, with deadly tornado outbreaks as well as record breaking tornado reports in the month of April. The active severe weather has affected the region as well today, bringing widespread severe weather to the Northeast, with the most notable event a deadly tornado in Springfield, Massachusetts.

The area has seen some severe weather today, but the storms failed to reach their potential, which was limited due to widespread cloud cover and areas of light rain early this afternoon spreading from a severe storm in NE Pennsylvania. Such an outcome is impossible to predict in advance, and can only be predicted through short term forecasting.The most notable storm today in the area was a severe storm in northern Morris county which produced heavy rainfall and hail. This storm collapsed before reaching the immediate NYC area, however. Some storms were also reported on Long Island.

Hot temperatures were observed in the area once again today, but this time temperatures were warmer than before. Originally, the warmest day was expected to be Monday, but today ended up as the hottest day of this heat spell. Since early last week, the potential was there for temperatures to reach the lower to mid 90s in parts of the area at the peak of the heat spell, which is what we have seen today; almost all locations from NYC and further west reached and pass the 90 degree mark, with Teterboro and Newark reporting a high of 95 degrees. Long Island and southern Connecticut saw colder temperatures, ranging from the lower 70s near the coast to the mid 80s closer to NYC, though most areas were generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Thursday, Friday and Weekend:

Thursday and Friday will bring a significantly colder air mass into the region. High temperatures tomorrow and Friday will be in the lower to upper 70s across the area, with tomorrow night bringing the coldest temperatures, getting into the mid to upper 40s north and west of NYC. This is unusually chilly for this time of the year. Saturday will slightly warm up, with lower 80s possible in parts of the immediate NYC area.

Next Week: Seasonable Temperatures, Rain Possible

Starting next weekend, a pattern will develop which will last through most of next week. The heat will be stuck to the west of the region, with widespread 90s in the central and southern US, getting as far as the southern/central Mid Atlantic. Meanwhile, the NYC area as well as the Northeast will be stuck under a colder air mass as the heat fails to spread into the region. At the same time, however, there will be occasional rain chances, starting on Sunday and lasting through parts of next week. Temperatures will remain seasonable, ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s, though mid 80s may be possible on occasion. There are indications that late next week may bring warmer temperatures. Stay tuned for more information on next week.

Tropics:

This year’s Atlantic hurricane season outlook will be posted on Sunday, June 5th.
The first day of summer truly felt like one in the area, with temperatures rising into the 90s for the first time this year for many places. This was not the only sign of summer, as with the first official day of the Atlantic hurricane season today, there is a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea. Development of this storm is uncertain, but the majority of the models develop this into at least a weak tropical system and bring it towards the Cuba/Jamaica/Haiti region during next week. Stay tuned for more information on this tropical disturbance.

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