June 1, 2011 Noon Update

4:18 PM: The cell near northern Morris county is changing directions, and is now mostly heading towards the east. This cell is capable of producing heavy rainfall along with hail potentially up to 1 inch in diameter. This storm is headed towards central and northern Bergen county, as well as central Passaic. It is possible that this storm may begin to weaken as it reaches Bergen, as it has intensified with another storm in front of it, but that storm has dissipated and this storm may begin to weaken as well.
4:00 PM: The second cell, currently in southern Sussex county, is the first severe thunderstorm to form in the area today. This cell is currently moving ENE, and within the next hour, will affect Western Passaic, Western/northern Bergen, and southern Rockland counties with strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and small to moderate hail.

3:50 PM: Two strong thunderstorms are currently in northern Warren and southern Sussex county, and are moving ENE. These storms are capable of producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and potentially small hail. Areas that will be affected by these storms over the next hour include northern Morris, Western Passaic, NW Bergen counties in NJ, and SW Rockland county in NY.


3:05 PM: NYC Area May Get Spared

With the area under a southwest wind today, temperatures quickly surged across the area, reaching the lower to mid 90s across the immediate NYC area with the heat index even getting near 100 degrees! Severe weather parameters are unusually high across the region, with CAPE up to 5500 and LI up to -12, and severe storms are quickly forming in the Northeast, but it appears that due to a minor issue with one of the storms in Pennsylvania, the NYC area may miss out on today’s storms.
Earlier this afternoon, a severe storm developed in north central Pennsylvania, which shifted southeast towards the Allentown area. Meanwhile, clouds extending to the east of the storm spread into NE Pennsylvania, preventing storm development. As a result of this, despite the extremely high parameters, there are no storms over the area while there are widespread severe thunderstorms to the north and south of the area. Such things, unfortunately, cannot be predicted in advance, as this is not a failure in the set up. Instead, this is a result of one of the storms which developed and moved in a way that prevented storm development in the region where any storm that forms would move into the area.
If necessary, storm updates may be posted later today, but at this time, it is unlikely that anything more than clouds and an isolated thunderstorm affect the area. With the parameters in place, any storm that does form could easily become severe, but the storms won’t be as strong or as widespread as those to the north of the area. The next update will be posted this evening, discussing the pattern setting up for this weekend and next week in more details.
Additional reminder: This year’s June outlook, summer outlook and the Atlantic hurricane season outlooks will all be posted on Sunday, June 5.

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