May 9, 2011: Nice This Week, Not So Nice Next Week

Note: The 5-Day Forecast page was not updated, but the forecast has not changed.

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As a strong low pressure is currently sitting over the western Atlantic Ocean with an area of high pressure sliding into the area, today brought mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures once again, with little to no change from the last few days, reaching the upper 60s inland, upper 60s to mid 70s in the immediate NYC area, and upper 60s to lower 70s in the eastern parts of the area.

Tomorrow will be slightly cooler in the eastern parts of the area as the low pressure moves a little closer, but the most it will do is slightly increase cloud cover, with mostly to partly sunny skies and highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s persisting through the rest of this week. The long stretch of nice weather, however, will come to an end by Friday/Saturday, as another cut off low is expected to move towards the western parts of the region, likely bringing a stretch of cloudy and stormy conditions that may not be quick to exit.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

With very little change in the overall scneario, tomorrow will once again bring conditions similar to today, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s inland and lower 70s in the immediate NYC area. The storm in the western Atlantic is expected to move slightly closer to the coast, resulting in mostly cloudy skies for the eastern parts of the area, a breezy north wind and the risk of an isolated shower in eastern Long Island/SE Connecticut, which will result in colder temperatures reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s further east and the mid to upper 60s closer to NYC.

Wednesday – Friday: Comfortable Weather Continues

With the low pressure still stuck in the western Atlantic and an area of high pressure near the area, Wednesday through Friday will continue to bring mostly to partly sunny skies to the area with temperatures in the lower 60s to lower 70s in the eastern parts of the area and upper 60s to mid 70s from NYC and further west.

During this time frame, however, changes in the set up will be taking place that will help bring an end to the stretch of comfortable and dry weather. The storm in the western Atlantic will slowly weaken and drift east, away from the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a storm in the north central US will slowly move east, running into a strong high pressure in southern Canada. There is some disagreement with the models as to what this high pressure does, but at this time it appears that it may try to push into the region, which would bring a back door cold front on Friday night resulting in colder temperatures on Saturday. This scenario does not have a high confidence level yet and will be watched.

Sunday And Beyond: Clouds, Rain Return

With the western Atlantic storm drifting away, the storm affecting the western/central US with more severe weather and rain will finally be able to move east towards the region. There are still large differences with the models, with the GGEM representing the least likely scenario of a very cold air mass pushing into New England, never bringing any rain into the area. The other models are still different from each other, but most of them point to a cut off low sticking around the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes area, slowly pushing clouds and storms east through the region. As this is still a week away, the exact scenario cannot be narrowed down yet, and there may very possibly be some changes with the scenario on the models, but when looking at the overall picture, clouds and storms may spread into the area around Sunday or Monday at the latest and last through early-potentially mid next week. Stay tuned for more information on this time frame.

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