May 6, 2011: Mild Week Ahead

Note: This post was slightly revised on Saturday morning, 5/7, to lower the forecast temperatures for early next week.
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As a cold air mass associated with a low pressure well to the north of the area left the region, a warmer air mass began moving in, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s for most of the area and the upper 60s to lower 70s in the immediate NYC area, but the morning temperatures were much colder than yesterday, with temperatures getting as low as the lower 30s in parts of Sussex/Orange counties as a result of mainly clear skies and a relatively cold air mass still around.

A weak low pressure staying well to the south of the area will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area tomorrow with similar high temperatures expected, with another area of rain staying mostly to the south of the area on Sunday with a few showers possible. As this storm stalls in the western Atlantic ocean with another storm in the western/central US crawing east very slowly, most of next week will bring partly cloudy skies and average temperatures, however the storm will finally reach the area by Friday, bringing a risk of showers and thunderstorms once again.

Weekend Outlook:

As previously mentioned, an area of showers will reach the area tomorrow, bringing the risk of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Due to low severe weather parameters, no severe weather is expected in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic tomorrow. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected, with high temperatures similar to today’s temperatures, peaking in the mid to upper 60s across most of the area and the lower 70s in most of the immediate NYC area. A west wind is expected.

Isolated showers are possible again on Sunday, however the risk of rain is low at this time, and any rain shower will be light. High temperatures will be slightly warmer, expected to reach the lower to mid 70s from NYC and further west, with Newark potentially passing the 75 degree mark.

Monday – Thursday: Comfortable West Of NYC, Chilly East Of NYC

The area of rain offshore will develop into a relatively strong storm offshore. While some movement of the storm is expected, for the main part it will be stuck in the western Atlantic Ocean. Clouds and showers will spread into eastern New England, and may reach parts of the area, especially on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a high pressure will enter the western and central parts of the region, and a storm developing in the western/central US will move east very slowly, taking 3-4 days to move from the Rockies to the Midwest.

With the pattern mostly stuck in place early to mid next week, dry and comfortable conditions will continue in most of the NYC area. Monday is expected to be a nice day across the area, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s, however from Tuesday through Thursday, this will change especially east of NYC. West of NYC, mostly to partly sunny skies are expected from Tuesday through Thursday, with high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s. East of NYC, however, as the offshore storm moves close, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected along with a NNE wind and chilly temperatures, reaching the lower 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday with scattered showers possible, and the mid 50s to lower 60s for Wednesday and Thursday. Other than Tuesday, when showers will affect eastern New England with a risk of strong thunderstorms in the southwestern parts of the region (West Virginia/SW PA/western VA), the Tuesday-Thursday time frame will be mainly dry across the region.

The storm in the western US will continue to slowly move east, reaching the Midwest area by at least Thursday, though the timing could be slightly faster or slower. The GFS is indicating the potential of yet another major severe weather outbreak focusing on the central US, and this potential will be followed. The storm is expected to reach the area around Friday, and while the exact details are uncertain, howers and potentially thunderstorms are expected. More information will be posted on this storm as details become clearer.

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