The back door cold front will move east and out of the area tonight as a warm front, with hot temperatures once again tomorrow. With the main cold front moving towards the area, however, thunderstorms will be a risk tomorrow, and it is possible that tomorrow may bring the area’s first significant severe weather outbreak of the year.
Mainly cloudy skies along with some fog are expected in the morning across the area. With the warm front moving through, some showers and thunderstorms are very possible in parts of the NE, potentially including parts of the area, and even another MCS similar to what we saw yesterday morning cannot be ruled out, but most of the storms would stay to our north should there be any activity tomorrow morning.
With the warm front to the east of the area, a southwest wind is expected, which combined with sunshine in the late morning into the early afternoon hours, will allow temperatures to warm up into the upper 80s to lower 90s from NYC and further west. Temperatures in Long Island and southern Connecticut will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s. With dew points potentially reaching the lower 70s, heat index will reach the lower to potentially mid 90s from NYC and further west.
There is a clear risk of severe weather tomorrow in the region, but how big the risk ends up is uncertain. Most of the models continue to show impressive parameters, with CAPE up to 4000, LI up to -10, and lapse rates up to 7. Bulk shear up to 35-40 knots is expected, which is enough for at least an enhanced 30% risk of severe weather. The higher bulk shear values are to the north of the area, and I placed the area in the southern end of the 30% risk, which extends into New England.