May 30, 2011 Noon Update

12:00 PM: With this morning’s MCS (mesoscale convective system) out of the region, bringing an estimated 1/4 to 3/4 inch of rain from NYC and further west and up to 1/4 inch east of NYC, cloud cover is starting to slowly clear from NYC and further west, allowing temperatures which have been stuck in the 70s across the area to begin rising. Temperatures were already expected to be in the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west as of 11 AM, showing that today’s temperatures will end up below the original forecast.

Partly cloudy skies are expected later this afternoon, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further west, with a few lower 90s possible in the immediate NYC area. Temperatures will peak in the mid 70s to mid 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. Tuesday’s highs will be much colder, only reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s in the immediate NYC area with upper 60s to mid 70s further east.

Wednesday’s Storms: There have not been any significant changes with the models for Wednesday, with a line of showers and thunderstorms expected to move through in the afternoon and evening hours. The models are still showing supportive severe weather parameters, but bulk shear is still missing. There is enough support for a slight severe weather risk, where I’d go with a low end 30% risk in the area and into southern New England, but this outbreak is unlikely to be as big as the one in Pennsylvania and New York a few days ago.

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