6:55 AM: Yesterday, a long lasting MCS went through southern Michigan, bringing wind damage to that area, before weakening and moving into western NY by the evening. It was expected to weaken and stay to the north of the area, but instead, with instability still in place over the area, the MCS took a turn towards the southeast and unexpectedly strengthened, moving towards the area. Strong thunderstorms moved over northern NJ and southeastern NY over the last 1-2 hours, and are currently entering Long Island. The storms are weakening, but it is impressive how long they have held together until this point, even reaching the area and still bringing strong thunderstorms.
Another update will be posted later this morning, but today’s temperature outlook has been lowered across the area, with most of northern NJ now expected to stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with the warmest temperatures towards the immediate NYC area. Signs are there for a stronger back door cold front than previously expected, and NYC will struggle into the lower to potentially mid 80s on Tuesday while places east of NYC fail to reach the 80 degree mark, while severe thunderstorms remain a possibility for Wednesday. I will discuss why there is no longer a heat wave potential in the area, as well as Wednesday’s severe weather risk, in more details later this morning.