Note: The 5-Day Forecast will be updated tomorrow morning, and an update discussing tomorrow’s conditions and Wednesday’s severe weather will be posted as well.
With a very warm air mass starting to spread into the region from the south central US, today brought warm temperatures into the area, reaching the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west, and the lower to upper 70s in Long Island and southern Connecticut with a few lower 80s reported as well.
June 1st is the start of meteorological summer, and this year’s June 1st will feel like a typical July day. Hot temperatures will enter the area tomorrow, bringing high temperatures into the 90s from NYC and further west, and while temperatures will cool down from NYC and further east on Tuesday due to a weak back door cold front, Wednesday will slightly warm up ahead of a cold front, which may be capable of producing the area’s first significant severe weather outbreak of the year.
Memorial Day Outlook: Hot And Humid
There is some slight uncertainty with the exact temperatures, and at this time I am going slightly warmer than the model guidance. In addition, there is also the risk of pop up showers and thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours, and while the storms that do form, if any, should be isolated, any storm that does form may be capable of reaching strong/severe levels. An update will be posted tomorrow morning regarding tomorrow’s conditions as well as Wednesday’s potential severe weather outbreak.
Tuesday – Thursday: Heat Continues, Severe Weather Risk
A weak back door cold front will move into the area on Tuesday morning, moving in from north to south. This will result in a mostly east wind for the central and eastern parts of the area, bringing in colder temperatures. Temperatures from NYC and further west will still be very warm, in the upper 80s to lower 90s in northern NJ and in the mid to potentially upper 80s in NYC, but east of NYC, temperatures will be colder, reaching the lower 70s to lower 80s. Some models have been suggesting a risk of severe weather on Tuesday, and while it is uncertain at this time, isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, some which may be strong.
As a storm well to the north of the area moves east, the back door cold front will move east again as a warm front, with 850 mb temperatures once again returning into the 18c-20c range. Some sunshine is expected through the afternoon hours, allowing temperatures to warm up once again into the upper 80s to lower 90s from NYC and further west with a southwest wind, bringing warmer temperatures to Long Island/southern Connecticut as well.