May 27, 2011 Brief Update

Note: Another update may be posted tomorrow morning, otherwise the next full update will be posted on Monday, May 30.

– The 5-Day Forecast has been updated for the entire area, as well as Long Island and southern Connecticut.

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Weekend/Next Week Update:

Tomorrow will bring a risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms from NYC and further west, which should be light and widely scattered for the main part. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s in Long Island and southern Connecticut to the mid 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further west. Sunday will bring drier conditions with sightly warmer temperatures, reaching the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west.

Monday is still expected to be very warm, with temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s from NYC and further west, but by Tuesday, a back door cold front previously expected to stay north of the area will move through the area, which combined with an onshore wind and the warmest 850 mb temperatures staying to the west of the area, will lower temperatures for the immediate NYC area and Long Island/southern Connecticut. Wednesday will slightly warm up ahead of the next cold front which will produce scattered thunderstorms, with severe weather also a risk.

By the late week, a colder air mass will move into the area, but some models such as the GFS may be overestimating the cold air mass, bringing high temperatures into the 60s for most of the area. At this time, I am expecting high temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 70s across the area, rising by next weekend. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

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