5:25 PM: Over the last two days, what appeared to be a minimal risk of severe thunderstorms west of the area today quickly grew into the potential for a large outbreak, with current severe weather parameters in Pennsylvania and New York State very high, with Lift Index as low as -12! With these parameters, severe thunderstorms are currently firing up to the west of the area, with some of these storms tornado warned. Some tornadoes are possible in the Northeast, with SPC placing a 10% risk of tornadoes from NE PA into central New York. Other risks from this outbreak include large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Today’s action may get as far east as NW New Jersey/Orange County, NY, where locally severe storms are possible, but otherwise, the rest of the area will stay dry today and tomorrow. Temperatures up to this point reached the lower to upper 80s west of NYC, with colder temperatures east of NYC. Tomorrow will be similar to today, with another PA/NY severe weather outbreak but less intense than today’s. Warmer temperatures are expected in the area as well, with parts of NE NJ and Newark likely to reach the 90 degree mark for the first time this year. Long Island and southern Connecticut will see temperatures ranging from the mid 70s near the coast to the mid 80s closer to NYC.
Stay tuned for a full update tonight discussing Saturday’s scattered thunderstorm risk, next week’s heat wave and a potential severe weather outbreak on Wednesday/Thursday in more details. The 5-Day Forecast page will be updated for the entire area later tonight as well.