May 26, 2011: 90+ Degrees Next Week

Due to technical errors, the 5-Day Forecast was completed only for the immediate NYC area as of now. The other two forecasts are in progress and will be posted on Friday afternoon.

As the same cold front that produced deadly severe weather outbreaks over the last few days slowly moved towards the region, Pennsylvania and New York were next in line to be affected by the storms, with widespread hail and wind reports in those areas so far with the storms still ongoing. Several tornado warnings were posted as well, but at this time there are no confirmed tornadoes yet. With the area east of the storms, with dry conditions and 850 mb temperatures reaching 18c, today brought significantly warmer temperatures to parts of the area, reaching the mid to upper 80s for northern NJ and SE New York, mid 70s to lower 80s in the immediate NYC area, and in the lower to mid 70s for most of Long Island and southern Connecticut.

Weakening storms in eastern Pennsylvania are currently moving east, and are capable of producing heavy rain and gusty winds in Sussex, Warren and Orange counties before collapsing as they move towards New York City. Tomorrow will be dry once again, but temperatures will be warmer, likely reaching the 90 degree mark in parts of NE NJ and Newark. Saturday will cool down with scattered thunderstorms, but Friday’s warmth is just a preview of what will come next week, with the Monday-Wednesday time frame potentially bringing the area its first heat wave of the year.
Tomorrow’s Outlook:

The cold front will continue to weaken as it slowly moves east, with scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe, expected once again in Pennsylvania and New York, but they should be less intense and less widespread than today’s storms. As with today, some strong storms may reach the western parts of the area, specifically Sussex and Orange counties, with the rest of the area expected to stay dry.
With 850 mb temperatures in the 18-20c range along with partly cloudy skies and a SSW wind, tomorrow will bring the warmest temperatures so far this year to most of the area. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further west, and a few lower 90s are possible from parts of NE NJ towards Newark and south of there. Dew points will be in the mid 60s, making tomorrow’s temperatures feel slightly warmer than they will actually be. Long Island and southern Connecticut will see warmer temperatures as well, ranging from the mid 70s near the coast to the mid 80s closer to NYC.
Weekend Outlook: Slightly Colder, Some Storms

The warm air mass will slightly weaken on Saturday, with 850 mb temperatures falling into the 14-16c range. Combined with increased cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms, which may locally be strong, colder temperatures are expected, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further west. Sunday will bring drier conditions with partly cloudy skies expected along with the potential for an isolated thunderstorm, with high temperatures similar to those of Saturday, potentially slightly warmer from NYC and further west.
Monday – Wednesday: Heat Wave Potential

With the cold front failing to move through the area, a very warm air mass from Texas/Mexico will spread into most of the central and eastern United States, with a large ridge in place. The nearest low pressure will be in Montana on Monday, and it will take until Wednesday for the storm’s cold front to reach the area. With 850 mb temperatures rising into the 18-20c range along with partly sunny skies and a southwest wind, Monday will bring much warmer temperatures, reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s from NYC and further west, and a few mid 90s cannot be ruled out from NYC/Newark and further southwest. The latest models are suggesting a risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday evening, especially north of NYC, which if verifies, would bring a risk of strong storms to the area. At this time, I am keeping a low risk of precipitation, however this is subject to change.
With the warm air mass in place, overnight temperatures will also be mild, only dropping into the upper 60s to mid 70s in the immediate NYC area. Tuesday is likely to end up even warmer than Monday, and I am expecting temperatures to reach the lower to mid 90s from NYC and further west. Mostly sunny and dry conditions are expected.
On Wednesday, a cold front will reach the region, bringing an end to the heat. There is some slight uncertainty with timing, with the GFS showing a faster solution and the ECMWF showing a slower solution. At this time, I went closer to the DGEX’s timing, with Wednesday potentially ending up even warmer than Tuesday. If the timing is slow enough, parts of the immediate NYC area could reach the mid 90s as well. With the scenario in place, severe weather may be a concern for Wednesday, with the DGEX, GFS and GGEM showing signs of severe weather. While it is too early to determine where the risk is and how big it is, the potential for severe weather on Wednesday exists. This cold front will then bring a colder air mass behind it, bringing high temperatures back into the 70s. Stay tuned for more information on this potential heat wave.

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