May 24, 2011: Heat Wave Next Week?

With a cold front to the west of the area today, producing severe thunderstorms in the southern Mid Atlantic, today brought much warmer temperatures to the area, reaching the 80s in parts of the area. Temperatures tomorrow and on Thursday will be similar to those of today, but by Friday, as another storm develops to the west of the region, more warmth is expected with severe storms to the west of the area. Saturday may slightly cool down, but by Sunday or Monday, a large, very warm air mass will spread into the region, potentially bringing high temperatures in the 90s in parts of the area.

Tomorrow and Thursday:

Tomorrow and Thursday are expected to be similar, with the main difference being on Thursday when a SSE wind is expected. High temperatures will be in the lower 80s in northern NJ, upper 70s to lower 80s in NYC, and in the lower to upper 70s for Long Island and southern Connecticut. Both days will bring partly cloudy skies with dry conditions.
Friday – Saturday: Warmth, Storms Return

On Friday, a warm air mass in the Mid Atlantic will push into the area, bringing 850 mb temperatures into the 18-20c range. If the storms stay west of NYC as expected, high temperatures will be much warmer than Thursday, reaching the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further west, and parts of the area, especially from NYC/NE NJ and further south may reach the 90 degree mark.
With the storm west of the region and its cold front moving east, a significant severe weather outbreak may take place in the region. At this time, it appears that the best risk of severe weather should stay to the west of the area, potentially reaching the western parts of the area such as NW NJ and Orange County, and I drew a preliminary risk map, posted to the left, showing my current thoughts for severe weather potential risk and placement. It is possible that the risk may shift slightly east or west over the next few days.
The cold front will weaken as it moves towards the area on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, potentially strong/locally severe, with high temperatures slightly colder than those of Friday, but Friday’s storms bring a higher risk of severe weather than Saturday’s storms.
Sunday – Next Week: Heat Wave?

Over the last few days, I have been mentioning the potential for a significant warm spell, which now appears to be a reality. Starting on Sunday, a very warm air mass in Texas/Mexico will spread north and NE towards the central and eastern US, reaching the area as well. This will bring an area of 850 mb temperatures above 20c into parts of the region, which may last through at least Wednesday.
Similar set ups to the one expected for next week include June 2008, July 2010 and late August 2010, heat waves that each brought temperatures well into the 90s. While at this time, upper 90s are not expected in the area, given the 850 mb temperatures above 20c and the similar set ups, should the warmer case scenario verify, which I am leaning towards at this time, temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid 90s in parts of the area, from NYC and futher west. Stay tuned for more information over the next few days.

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