May 23, 2011 Evening: Storms Approaching

8:55 PM: A line of severe thunderstorms that moved through central and eastern Pennsylvania over the last few hours is currently entering the western parts of the area. These storms are still severe, with the strongest storms currently in Warren county, NJ, and northeastern Pennsylvania, moving towards Orange county, NY. The western parts of the area up to north central NJ and western Rockland county, NY will see heavy rain and thunderstorms over the next hour, with gusty winds and small hail possible as well.

(Click on the short range forecast graphic below to view it in a larger size.)

As mentioned in yesterday’s update, these storms are currently entering a much more stable area, with severe weather parameters in northern New Jersey very unfavorable for thunderstorms, resulting in the storms weakening as they move east through New Jersey. Despite these unfavorable parameters, an area of supportive shear continues to move east along with the storms in Warren County, and even though the storms will begin to weaken as they move east through New Jersey and into NYC over the next 1-2 hours, the storm in Warren County may still be close to severe intensity by the time that it reaches the immediate NYC area, focusing on Morris, eastern Passaic, Bergen, Hudson and Union counties in NJ, capable of producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. The storm is showing signs of rotation, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with this storm.

Stay tuned for a full update soon, discussing tomorrow’s warmth/storms as well as another round of warm temperatures on Friday/Saturday, with severe weather possible once again on Saturday.

Leave a Reply