Today’s chilly conditions will only be brief, however. A storm to the west of the region tomorrow will bring a warmer air mass, and while tomorrow will slowly warm up, Tuesday will bring the first day over 80 degrees to NYC this month, unusually late for May, along with a strong thunderstorm risk. While Wednesday will be slightly cooler, Thursday will bring warmer temperatures along with another potential of thunderstorms, and even though a slightly colder air mass will move in during the Memorial Day weekend, the potential is there for sustained warmth beyond next weekend.
Tomorrow’s Outlook: Warmer, Some Storms
The high pressure east of the area today will move east, away from the region, but will still have enough of an influence to limit tomorrow’s high temperatures from getting much warmer. A significant warmer air mass will move in tomorrow ahead of a low pressure in the Great Lakes, with temperatures at 850 mb reaching the 12-15c range, but with a SSE wind expected, temperatures will not warm up as much, especially east of NYC. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s from NYC and further west except for the immediate coast of NYC, and Long Island/southern Connecticut will see highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Along with the warm air mass and storm comes a severe weather risk. With NYC on the edge of the supportive parameters, the severe weather risk in the area is low, and is mostly from NYC and further west, with the best risk of severe weather existing to the west of the area. Parameters across the region are supportive enough for some severe thunderstorms, though the risk is relatively low, at 15%, focusing on Pennsylvania and western NY as well as parts of Virginia. Some severe thunderstorms may reach the western parts of the area, towards NW NJ and Orange County, NY, but will weaken as they move east towards NYC.