May 14, 2011: Heavy Rain Next Week

Notes:

Tonight’s update will be brief as this morning’s detailed day-by-day discussion covers most of the forecast for next week.

Slight revisions to this website’s pages have been made tonight and will be made tomorrow. Today, the Long Range Forecast and the Weather Alerts pages have been updated, and the Storm Summary page will be updated tomorrow as well. The 5-Day Forecast page has been updated for the immediate NYC area only at this time, but will be expanded tomorrow.

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Tomorrow: Rain, Thunderstorms

The storm moving in from the west will bring showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, especially towards the late afternoon and evening hours, however the models have trended drier with tomorrow’s outcome, showing a general 1/4 to 1/2 inch, locally 3/4 inch, from NYC and further west, and up to 1/4 inch, locally 1/2 inch, east of NYC. The temperature forecast has not changed.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Heavy Rain Potential

The models continue to show heavy rain in this time frame, with the 12z GGEM the most extreme and the outlier of the day, showing over 7 inches of rain in parts of the immediate NYC area. The NAM/DGEX take the rain mostly to the south of the area, and while this is unlikely at this time, it will be watched in case it becomes a trend.

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