April 9, 2011 Brief Update

A brief update was posted tonight. The 5-Day Forecast page was updated through Wednesday, with the forecast for Thursday and beyond discussed briefly below.

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As a storm exited the coast of the Mid Atlantic early today, there was less cloud cover than expected with mostly sunny skies observed, along with high temperatures peaking in the lower to mid 60s inland, mid to upper 50s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid 50s for the eastern parts of the area. Warmer temperatures will return on Monday after mainly cloudy conditions tomorrow, however it appears that the warmth may not be as strong as originally thought.

Sunday Into Monday: Warming Up

Tomorrow will bring mostly cloudy skies with a few showers possible. High temperatures will peak in the lower to mid 50s across the area, with a few upper 50s possible west of NYC. A south wind is expected.

As the warm front moves through overnight, temperatures will remain steady in the lower 50s across most of the area, and are expected to rise on Monday. I slightly revised the forecast from yesterday earlier this afternoon to increase the forecast temperatures, however every model has been trending noticeably colder with Monday’s temperatures, some of them failing to bring NYC much above 70 degrees, and while this is only a new trend, it is unlikely that temperatures reach the lower 80s across a widespread part of the area, and are instead likely to peak in the lower to mid 70s in NYC and in the mid to upper 70s further west.

Tuesday – Saturday: Comfortable, But Not Very Warm

The cold front will move through overnight, bringing some showers and thunderstorms late on Monday night into Tuesday morning with occasional showers lasting through parts of Tuesday night. Tuesday will bring high temperatures in the lower to upper 60s for most of the area. For Wednesday, most models are showing a low pressure off the coast, and while no rain is expected at this time, the Wednesday-Thursday time frame may not be as warm as originally thought, with high temperatures generally peaking in the mid 50s to lower 60s with a few mid 60s possible west of NYC. By Friday night into Saturday, a storm is expected to move into the region, and while the exact details are still uncertain, there is the potential for moderate to heavy rain to affect the area. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

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