April 8, 2011: 70+ Degrees On Monday

Note: This discussion was slightly revised on Saturday (4/9) to edit Monday’s forecast temperatures.

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A weak storm moved towards the region today, mostly affecting Pennsylvania and the central Mid Atlantic with moderate to locally heavy rain, though a high pressure in New England suppressed the storm to the south of the area, with only a few showers observed. High temperatures were in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area especially due to the cloud cover.

While tomorrow will bring some more sunshine, with partly cloudy skies expected, temperatures will not warm up just yet, with Sunday once again bringing mostly cloudy to cloudy skies and occasional showers. By Monday, however, a warm front associated with a much warmer air mass will finally manage to push its way through the area, and while coastal areas will stay chilly for Monday, through the rest of the week warmer temperatures in the 60s will spread across most of the area.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring partly cloudy skies to the area with a south/SSE wind expected. High temperatures are expected to peak in the mid to upper 50s from NYC and further west and in the lower to upper 50s further east. Parts of the immediate NYC area are expected to reach the lower 60s.

Sunday – Monday: Warm Front Pushes Through

A warm front will bring a very warm air mass into the Ohio Valley and parts of the Great Lakes on Sunday, with widespread 80s expected in those areas, however this front will struggle to reach the area at first. Sunday is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies again along with occasional showers, though no washout is expected. High temperatures will be slightly cooler than tomorrow, peaking in the lower to mid 50s across the area with a few upper 50s expected west of NYC. As the warm front gets closer to the area on Sunday night, mostly cloudy skies and some showers are expected to continue.

By Monday, the warm front is expected to push through the area, with 850 mb temperatures expected to peak between 15 to 18 degrees Celsius, however there are several issues that will prevent temperatures from surging into the 80s across the entire area. A mostly south wind is expected, which will help keep Long Island and southeastern Connecticut with much cooler temperatures, peaking in the mid 50s to mid 60s. The models are still split into two scenarios, with the GFS model showing mid 70s in NYC and the NAM barely bringing NYC to 60 degrees for the high temperature.

The NAM is most likely too cold, and I went with warmer temperatures at this time, expecting highs in the lower to mid 70s in coastal sections of NYC, with temperatures in the rest of NYC and northern NJ reaching the mid to upper 70s. Parts of northern NJ, especially towards NE NJ, are even expected to get close to, if not over the 80 degree mark. Other than an isolated shower or two early in the day, no rain is expected.

The storm’s cold front will affect the area on Monday night into Tuesday morning with showers and thunderstorms expected. No severe weather is expected at this time, with the best chance for severe thunderstorms well west of the area, towards western Pennsylvania. Tuesday will bring slightly cooler temperatures but still above the average, peaking in the lower to upper 60s across most of the area. In the warmer case scenario, a few lower 70s cannot be ruled out near New York City.

Longer Range:

After the storm exits, a high pressure will move towards the region on Wednesday with mostly to partly sunny skies expected. High temperatures will stay in the lower to upper 60s across the area, with Thursday expected to bring mostly sunny skies again but with warmer temperatures, peaking in the mid to upper 60s for most of the area and in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the immediate NYC area. Beyond Thursday, there is increasing uncertainty, though Friday may bring slightly cooler temperatures, and the next potential storm may affect the area between Friday night and Sunday. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

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