April 7, 2011: Sustained Warmth Next Week

A weak disturbance continued to affect the area last night through this afternoon with cloudy skies and occaisonal showers, with cloud cover slightly clearing by the evening hours. High temperatures were chilly, staying in the lower to mid 50s from NYC and further west, and in the upper 40s to lower 50s east of NYC.

The cloudy and rainy conditions will last through Sunday, but as a storm develops in the central US and moves towards the Great Lakes, a much warmer air mass will return into the region, and while there is uncertainty with the temperatures in NYC, the western parts of the area towards west central NJ may reach the lower 80s, with lower to mid 70s possible in NYC. Behind this storm, temperatures will cool down a little, but mild temperatures will finally sustain themselves, with 60s expected to last through the rest of next week.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Another weak storm will move towards the region from the west, especially by the late afternoon and evening hours. A high pressure in New England will keep most of the precipitation to the south of the area, though a few showers are still expected. Partly cloudy skies are expected in the morning becoming cloudy by the evening, with high temperatures peaking in the lower to mid 50s across most of the area, except for the coast where temperatures will peak in the upper 40s to lower 50s. A SE wind is expected.

Weekend Outlook: Slowly Warming Up

As the storm exits, a very warm air mass will slowly be moving in from the southwest. Saturday will bring mostly cloudy skies again with an isolated shower or two possible, with high temperatures peaking in the mid 50s to lower 60s across most of the area, except for Long Island where temperatures will peak in the lower to upper 50s. Sunday will bring mostly cloudy skies once again with a few showers possible, and high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s from NYC and further west with lower to upper 50s near the coast again.

By Monday, 850 mb temperatures will surge to the 15c-18c range, which would usually spell temperatures reaching the 70s and 80s, though in this case, with an onshore flow expected especially east of NYC, only parts of the area will get into the warmth. There are currently two scenarios, one in which NYC sees highs only in the mid 60s with 50s for Long Island, and the other scenario is where temperatures in the lower 80s get as far as NYC/northern New Jersey. At this time, I am thinking that temperatures should reach the 70 degree mark in NYC but may not get much higher than that, with upper 60s to mid 70s in the immediate NYC area and mid to upper 70s further west. Places towards west central NJ may even reach the lower 80s.

Overnight on Monday, the storm’s cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms. If the warmer case scenario verifies, some of these may be severe, however this potential is still uncertain. Behind the storm, Tuesday will bring temperatures back into the 50s to mid 60s, with mostly sunny skies expected for Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures rising into the lower to potentially upper 60s across the area.

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