April 5, 2011: Chilly, Cloudy, Rainy Pattern

A storm which brought a widespread severe weather outbreak to the southeastern United States yesterday moved into the region and the area, bringing strong thunderstorms to the western parts of the area this morning, with light to moderate rain and thunderstorms moving into the rest of the area afterwards. The cold front brought a significant drop in temperatures, dropping as much as 15 degrees in just half an hour! Temperatures dropped from the 60s west of NYC in the morning into the 40s by the late afternoon with 30s in Sussex/Orange counties. While there are no official reports of frozen precipitation there, it is possible that some sleet may have fell in the higher elevations in those areas.

The storm left the area earlier this afternoon with dry conditions in place, however the next 24 hour time frame will be the last for a while where there is no storm affecting the area, as starting tomorrow night, several weak storms will affect the area with occasional showers through the weekend and into early next week. Chilly temperatures are also expected early on, however a warm up is expected by Sunday or Monday.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring increasing clouds to the area with a few showers expected towards the evening hours. High temperatures will peak in the lower to mid 50s for most of the area with mid to upper 50s in the immediate NYC area, potentially reaching the 60 degree mark in some places. A breezy SW wind is expected, with gusts over 20 mph possible especially further east.

Wednesday Night – Saturday: Chilly, Cloudy And Rainy

A weak disturbance is expected to move into the area on Wednesday evening, which will last through Thursday afternoon. This will not be an organized storm, and will bring cloudy skies to the area along with occasional showers. Low temperatures will be steady in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area. With cloudy skies and occasional showers on Thursday, high temperatures will peak in the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of the area, with a few mid 50s possible in the immediate NYC area. Behind this disturbance, there will not be enough time for the cloud cover to clear as yet another storm, this time more organized, will approach the area from the west.

Cloudy skies will continue through Thursday night with a shower or two possible with low temperatures steady in the mid 30s to lower 40s across the area. A high pressure in New England will help suppress the storm mostly to the south of the area, moving in an ESE direction, however it is expected to be far north enough to bring at least some rain to the area, especially from 12 PM Friday into the overnight hours. High temperatures are expected to stay on the cold side, peaking in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area. The storm will continue through the middle of the overnight hours before beginning to end, with mostly cloudy skies returning by Saturday with an isolated shower or two possible along with warmer temperatures. It is possible that the storm ends up further south than expected, which would keep the area mostly dry with warmer temperatures, however at this time at least some rain is expected to affect the area.

As a strong storm is expected to organize itself towards the north central US on Sunday, a warmer air mass will begin to spread into the region, however temperatures are not expected to significantly warm up just yet, likely warming up into the mid 50s to lower 60s with a few showers possible. By Monday, if the storm is slow enough, staying west of the area during the day, temperatures will warm up even more, potentially reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s in parts of the area. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

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