Tomorrow will bring dry conditions to the area again, however cloud cover will increase late in the day as a cold front slowly approaches from the west, bringing a low risk of severe weather to parts of the South which will stay away from the hardest hit areas from Wednesday’s outbreak. This cold front, however, will bring an end to the brief break from the active pattern, as a wave from this front will become a cut off low by mid week sitting over the Northeast, which combined with a -NAO and a trough over the NE US, will likely bring a chilly and wet pattern into the region.
Mostly sunny skies are expected again tomorrow, but cloud cover will increase towards the evening. High temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s east of NYC, and in the mid to upper 60s from NYC and further west.
The cold front previously mentioned will slowly move east towards the region. On Monday, rain associated with the front will enter the western parts of the region, such as Pennsylvania and western NY, however as the cold front slows down, rain will have difficulty getting east of the Interstate 95 corridor, and as a result, mainly cloudy skies are expected across the area with the best chane for showers from NYC and further west. With the warm sector staying south of the area, no thunderstorms are expected, and with an onshore SSE wind expected as well, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s east of NYC, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s from NYC and further west.
The front will significantly slow down on Monday night, and is expected to stall from NYC and further southwest on Tuesday. The NAM model is currently the westernmost and strongest outlier, keeping the low pressure well west of the area with the warm sector getting as far west as Kentucky. The NAM is likely going too strong with the storm, and its 18z late afternoon run did shift slightly east and weaker, therefore I went with the further east models, such as the GFS and GGEM. The GFS is showing signs of potential severe weather in the southern Mid Atlantic on Tuesday, and while no significant severe weather outbreak will take place, any severe weather potential will be watched.