April 3, 2011: Active Pattern Ahead

Today brought partly to mostly cloudy skies to the area with high temperatures slightly warmer than yesterday, peaking in the mid to upper 50s for most of the area and in the upper 50s to lower 60s in the immediate NYC area. Cloudy skies are expected to cover the area tonight as a storm moves in from the west, bringing some rain tonight and thunderstorms on Tuesday morning. This is only the start of an active week, however, as there are more rain chances through the end of the week and into next weekend and early next week.

Looking at the latest radar, posted to the left, there is already moderate rain moving through Pennsylvania. This area of rain will affect the area tonight for a few hours, bringing light rain with a burst of moderate rain possible, and should mostly exit the area by 8 AM tomorrow with a few showers possible.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

During the day tomorrow, the low pressure is expected to move through Michigan and into Canada. This will push the warm front through the area during the day tomorrow, bringing clearing skies to the area by the late afternoon with a sharp gradient in temperatures expected. While Newark is expected to reach the lower 70s, eastern Long Island will struggle to reach the 55 degree mark by the late afternoon.

The exact gradient lines are still slightly uncertain, and temperatures for the western parts of the area may be slightly colder or warmer than shown to the left, though in the colder case scenario, places north of the NY/NJ line would stay in the 50s, with lower to mid 60s in northern New Jersey and upper 60s in NYC. In the warmer case scenario, which I partially leaned towards with tonight’s forecast, high temperatures would peak in the mid to upper 60s is northern NJ and may even reach 70 degrees in NE NJ.

Monday Night – Tuesday: Rain, Thunderstorms

As the area will stay in the warm sector of the storm tomorrow night, temperatures will remain steady in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland and in the lower to mid 60s in most of the immediate NYC area. Temperatures will also remain steady in the 50s for the eastern parts of the area.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected at first, though as a line of rain and thunderstorms approaches from the west, cloud cover will increase. This line of storms is expected to bring some severe weather for the western parts of the region, such as western Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and as the line moves east, it is expected to weaken.

Rain is expected to move into the western parts of the area between 3 and 6 AM, and between 6 and 9 AM for the eastern parts of the area. As the storms move in, temperatures are expected to quickly drop in the western parts of the area into the upper 40s and lower 50s, but should slightly rise by Tuesday afternoon. Light to moderate rain and thunderstorms are expected, which may be locally heavy, along with gusty winds, and the storms should begin to move out of the area from west to east by 12 PM. Cloud cover will clear by the late afternoon with increasingly windy conditions, gusting up to 35 mph at times.

Longer Range: Temperatures are expected to remain at seasonable levels through Wednesday and Thursday with a few showers possible on Thursday. There is a lot of uncertainty for the longer range, though a warm up is likely around Saturday, with chilly conditions possible for Friday along with some rain possible. More information will be posted on the longer range as details become clearer.

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