April 29, 2011: Quiet Weather Won’t Last Long

Note: The 5-Day Forecast was updated tonight. In addition, the new “Short Range Severe Weather” section in the right side of the page has been updated.
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With yesterday’s cold front exiting the region, an upper level low in place produced mainly cloudy skies and scattered showers, however with this exiting the area and a high pressure moving in, this weekend will bring mostly sunny skies and dry conditions along with comfortable temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. After consistent cloud cover and rain across the area this month and the tornado outbreaks over the last several days, a break in the active pattern is finally taking place, but this break will not last for long as a cold front on Monday will bring back a cloudy, chilly and rainy pattern into the area.
Weekend Outlook:

Tomorrow is going to be the first and last comfortable day with mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures for a while. With a high pressure in place, mainly sunny skies are expected across the area, with high temperatures expected to be in the lower to upper 60s across the area. A few lower 70s cannot be ruled out near and southwest of NYC.
Sunday is expected to bring an onshore wind once again, which will limit how warm the coastal areas will get, with high temperatures expected to stay in the mid 50s to lower 60s east of NYC, and in the mid to upper 60s from NYC and further west. A few lower 70s cannot be ruled out again in portions of northern NJ.
Monday – Tuesday: Cold Front Brings Rain, But No Severe Storms

A storm expected to bring a blizzard to portions of the north central US tomorrow will slowly move east, bringing a cold front through. Fortunately, this cold front will not be capable of producing widespread severe weather outbreaks, and in fact is expected to spare most of the region of any severe thunderstorms except for the southwestern parts, which may potentially see some strong/severe storms.
The models are keeping the area north of the warm sector, meaning that temperatures fail to get much above the 60 degree mark on Monday, if they do so at all. At this time, I am expecting high temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area on Monday, with the coldest temperatures further east, though temperatures are subject to slight changes. The cold front will bring rain during the afternoon and evening hours, and while a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out, this will be mostly a plain rain, not a thunderstorm event for the area.
During Tuesday, as the cold front slows down, scattered showers are expected with high temperatures reaching the mid 50s to lower 60s across the area, however this cold front will not be quick to move through, with a wave of low pressure on Wednesday bringing the potential for heavy rain in parts of the region.
Wednesday – Thursday: Chilly, Rainy

A wave of low pressure is expected to develop along the cold front and move up right along the coast on Wednesday, bringing widespread rainfall across the region. The GFS model intensifies this storm into a well organized coastal low, and even showed snow in parts of the Northeast in some of its runs, however the storm is unlikely to follow that scenario, and at this time, I went closer to the ECMWF model, with a wave of low pressure moving up the coast and potentially slowing down or stalling on Wednesday night.
This scenario is subject to change and is not final yet, however at this time, rain is expected to move in during the day on Wednesday, and may be moderate or potentially heavy especially during the evening and early overnight hours. The rain will continue through parts of Thursday before ending. Chilly temperatures are also expected on Wednesday, and for tonight’s forecast I went with the warmer models, expecting highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the area. Once again, this forecast is not final as there is still some slight uncertainty and is subject to change, but regardless of the exact scenario, rain is expected on Wednesday into Thursday, which may potentially be moderate or heavy. Stay tuned for more information on this storm.

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