5:10 PM: A storm that brought a widespread and destructive tornado outbreak to the SE US yesterday, with 165 tornadoes reported so far in that region with over 200 deaths, reached the region this morning and early afternoon, producing severe thunderstorms from NYC and further west with a potential tornado in Morris county. Yesterday, there was some doubt that severe weather would reach its full potential with the storm’s timing not being very supportive, and while the supportive parameters helped make up for the timing issue, with today’s severe weather slightly exceeding expectations, today’s outbreak could have been much more worse had the squall line reached the area several hours later with more sunshine before the storms.
Storms first reached the westernmost parts of the area early this morning, much earlier than originally expected. These storms failed to make it much further east, however a more organized and intense squall line began developing in eastern PA and moved towards the area by the late morning. This line began affecting the western parts of the area around 11 AM-noon, along with a tornado warned storm that later moved into Morris County. It is possible that this storm may have produced a tornado or a funnel cloud, however at this time there is no official tornado report. As this storm moved into Rockland County, more strong thunderstorms formed near central NJ and moved through the rest of NE NJ, producing heavy rain and gusty winds. Estimated rainfall amounts from the radar are between 1/2 and 1, locally 1.5 inches from NYC and further west, and generally between 0.1 and 0.3 inch east of NYC.
The storms have already ended, and other than some showers tomorrow, mainly sunny skies are expected this weekend with little to no severe weather in the central and eastern US. The next full update will be posted tomorrow.