April 27, 2011 Brief Update

Note: Tonight’s update does not include the 5-Day Forecast. The 5-Day Forecast page will likely be updated tomorrow.

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Tonight and Tomorrow: Heavy Rain, Wind With Storms Tomorrow

A strong storm today brought a widespread tornado outbreak to the South, where so far 127 tornadoes have been reported, with more possible. This storm will move towards the region, producing heavy rain and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong/severe, however it is possible that the severe weather risk may be limited from the area and further north.

Bulk shear is expected to be supportive of severe weather with up to 60 knots expected, along with a lift index (LI) of up to -3, which can support at least some severe weather. The timing of the storm is an issue, however, with rain already expected to reach the western and central parts of the area between 12-3 PM. With this scenario, the line would have to reach the NYC area at least after 5 PM for there to be a better risk of severe thunderstorms.
The timing issue do not mean that there will be no storms in the area or that there won’t be any significant weather as a result of this storm, as a line of heavy rain and thunderstorms is still expected to move through the area, producing heavy rainfall locally up to 1-2 inches from NYC and further west, and gusty winds. The best risk of severe weather, however, is to the south of the area, where timing will be more supportive along with better parameters and more sunshine ahead of the line. At this time, I placed NYC under a 15% risk, as at least some strong/severe thunderstorms are expected with gusty winds the main risk, however depending on tomorrow’s observations, it is possible that the slight risk may be removed for some places north or well north of NYC. Stay tuned for storm updates tomorrow in the afternoon.
Longer Range: Behind the storm, comfortable and dry weather is expected for the weekend with high temperatures in the 60s, reaching the lower 70s on Sunday from NYC and further west. Early next week, around Tuesday, another cold front is expected to move through, which will produce more showers and potentially thunderstorms, however severe weather with this cold front will not be anywhere near as intense as the outbreaks that the south/central US has seen over the last week. This cold front will then be followed by cooler temperatures. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

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