April 25, 2011: Active Week Starting

Today started out with mainly cloudy skies across the area, however since then cloud cover has quickly cleared up when the forecast was for mainly cloudy skies to remain, and temperatures warmed up, reaching the lower to mid 70s from NYC and further west. Parts of Long Island also reached the lower 70s before cloud cover and a south wind helped cool down the temperatures.

So far, this month has been very active across the United States, with widespread, damaging and deadly severe weather and tornado outbreaks, such as April 14-16 when over 300 tornadoes were observed, and April 22 when an EF-4 tornado struck St. Louis, and consistent rain in the Northeast. This active pattern will temporarily end late this week, however the next few days will continue to be very active, with two more widespread severe weather and tornado outbreaks across the southern United States, and scattered thunderstorms for the area before a stronger storm moves through on Thursday, bringing the risk of more widespread severe weather into the region.

Tomorrow’s Outlook: Much Warmer, Humid

As the warm front stays north of the area along with a much warmer air mass moving in, tomorrow will bring much warmer temperatures into the area. 850 mb temperatures are expected to be near 15c, which combined with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a SSW wind, will allow temperatures to rise into the lower 80s from NYC and further west. Mid 80s are possible in parts of northern NJ, especially in Newark, where mid 80s are expected. Further east, cooler temperatures are expected, though 70s are still expected for parts of Long Island and most of southern Connecticut.

As a strong storm moves into the Midwest, producing another round of severe thunderstorms in the South and a late season snowstorm in the Midwest, locally severe thunderstorms are expected in the western parts of the region. Some storms may reach the western parts of the area overnight, however the severe weather risk for tomorrow is very low.

Wednesday – Thursday: Storms Return

The dry conditions will only be short lasting. Wednesday will bring mostly cloudy skies once again to the area along with scattered thunderstorms. The severe weather will stay well to the southwest and west of the area, though some storms in the area could be strong, especially from NYC and further west. More of a S/SSE wind is expected, resulting in cooler temperatures across the area, though highs are still expected to reach the mid 70s from NYC and further west.

By Thursday, a stronger storm will approach from the west. Yesterday, there was some uncertainty with the timing of the storm, resulting in uncertainty with the severe weather risk, however it is likely that the storms will reach the area at least after noon, with most models showing the storms reaching the area by the late afternoon, which would be supportive of severe weather. At this time, I went with the slower solutions but going a little faster, bringing storms into NYC by 2 PM, though the actual timing could be a little faster or slower. Should this scenario verify, an organized squall line would move through the area, bringing a risk of heavy rain and gusty winds. Stay tuned for more information on this storm, as well as severe weather risk maps, with tomorrow’s update.

Weekend Update: This storm’s cold front will finally bring a temporary end to the active weather across the US. Temperatures will be cooler in the area, with highs expected to return into the lower to mid 60s for Friday with partly sunny skies. Saturday will start to warm up with highs returning into the upper 60s and potentially lower 70s, with the next storm expected to affect the area early next week.

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