April 23, 2011 Morning: Heavy Rain Moving In

10 PM: The 5-Day Forecast has been updated through Thursday. The next update will be posted tomorrow, with more information on the heavy rain and strong/severe thunderstorm event for Thursday.

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11:00 AM: Rain Moving Through

Rain associated with a storm in the Great Lakes is currently affecting the area, with an area of heavy rain currently in western Long Island after having moved through the western parts of the area. This area of rain is moving east, and will affect the rest of Long Island/southern Connecticut within the nexthour. The rain will end by noon from NYC and further west, and from 12-2 PM for the eastern parts of the area.

Sunday: Much Warmer, Strong Storms Possible

After the rain ends, the storm’s warm front will move through the area late today, but the cold front will not be quick to move through, if it does so at all. The cold front will stall north of the area tonight resulting in temperatures steadily rising overnight, reaching the 60s in NYC by 12 AM.

Tomorrow, the cold front will slowly drop southeast, however the area will be in the northern edge of the warm sector, and only a small difference in the location of the front will determine whether NYC sees rain and highs in the 60s or strong thunderstorms and highs in the mid 70s. At this time, I expect NYC to reach the lower 70s tomorrow with showers and thunderstorms, potentially becoming strong with gusty winds but not reaching severe levels, mainly after noon, with a low-end slight risk for severe thunderstorms south of NYC.

Monday-Thursday: Much Warmer Temperatures

The stalled front will continue to produce occasional showers on Sunday night while dropping just south of the area, with mostly cloudy skies for Monday along with the potential for a few showers. On Monday, the stalled front will become a warm front as it lifts north of the area, though temperatures will be colder than those on Sunday, reaching the lower 60s on Sunday with a SSE wind expected. As the warm front continues to move north, a few showers are expected on Monday night, though most of the rain will stay north of the area, towards western New York.

A storm will move towards the Great Lakes on Sunday while the warm front continues to push north, which will bring a much warmer air mass into the region. A SSW wind is expected on Tuesday, which combined with partly/mostly cloudy skies, will result in high temperatures likely reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further west. The forecast high temperatures on Tuesday are not certain yet, and may be slightly cooler if there is more cloud cover than expected. Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be similar to each other, with a risk of severe weather towards the western parts of the region each day and a slight risk of an isolated thunderstorm in the area. Wednesday, however, will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the area, with more of a SSE wind. Breezy conditions are expected for both days.

By Thursday, a stronger storm is expected to develop and move towards the Great Lakes, with the models indicating that the storm will become negatively tilted as it moves towards the region. As should be expected with something several days away, there is uncertainty with the smaller details, however this storm is likely to produce heavy rain and strong, potentially severe thunderstorms, with gusty winds the main risk. Stay tuned for more information on this storm and how it may affect the area.

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