April 22, 2011: Warmth To Finally Return

The last week brought mainly chilly temperatures to the area, especially on Tuesday when temperatures only reached the mid to upper 40s inland and the lower to mid 50s across the rest of the area. As a high pressure moved over the region, yesterday morning brought very cold low temperatures, getting as low as the mid 20s in Orange County, NY. A storm moving into the region will produce heavy rain through tomorrow afternoon once again with high temperatures barely reaching the 60 degree mark in NYC, though much warmer temperatures will finally return next week, with the Tuesday-Thursday time frame expected to bring high temperatures near or above 70 degrees for parts of the area.

Tonight-Tomorrow: Heavy Rain Expected

A storm currently bringing a severe weather outbreak in the central US will continue to move east, bringing heavy rainfall to the area. Occasional showers will continue for now, with steadier rain expected to develop after 12 AM. The heaviest rain will fall on Saturday morning, with most of the rain expected to end from NYC and further west by at least 2 PM. By the time that the storm ends, at least 3/4 to 1.5 inch of rain is expected to fall across the area, with the highest rain totals west of NYC. Temperatures are expected to steadily rise throughout the day, peaking in the lower to upper 50s east of NYC and in the upper 50s to mid 60s from NYC and further west.

Warm Sunday, Cooler Monday

By Sunday, there is some uncertainty with the scenario. The NAM and CMC are showing high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s in NYC with some non-severe storms overnight, however the GFS is showing much warmer temperatures, reaching the lower to mid 70s in NYC with parameters supporting strong/potentially severe thunderstorms in the evening and early overnight hours. I will look into this potential in more details with tomorrow’s update, however at this time I expect temperatures to reach at least the lower 70s in NYC on Sunday with mostly cloudy skies and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening hours. This forecast is subject to some changes, so stay tuned for more details.

Showers are expected to continue through Sunday night, with Monday bringing slightly cooler temperatures and a risk of some showers.

Longer Range: The longer range will be discussed in more details tomorrow. A storm moving into the Great Lakes on Tuesday will bring a much warmer air mass, with temperatures likely to reach the 70s in NYC on Tuesday, Wednesday and potentially Thursday. There is uncertainty for Thursday, though a storm may affect the area around Thursday, potentially bringing rain, thunderstorms and windy conditions. Stay tuned for more information with tomorrow’s update.

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