April 13, 2011: Rain, Wind Saturday Night

***NOTICE: The blog is on vacation. Brief updates will be posted occasionally, though daily updates will resume on Saturday, 4/23.***

The 5-Day Forecast page was updated through Monday for the immediate NYC area only, with a general outlook for next week beyond Monday discussed in more details below.

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As a cut off low slowly moved through the region over the last day, two rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms affected the area, the first one yesterday evening and the other round during the overnight hours. Rain totals ended up between 1 and 2 inches across most of the area, with locally lower or higher amounts also observed. With the storm moving out of the area tonight, tomorrow will bring mostly sunny skies to the area along with much warmer temperatures, reaching the mid to upper 60s in the immediate NYC area.

These mild conditions will only be brief, however, as a strong high pressure moving into the northern US will bring colder temperatures along with it for Friday, and by Saturday night, a storm is expected to affect the region with heavy rain and windy conditions.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Occasional drizzle with fog is expected to continue through this evening and parts of the overnight hours, with mostly cloudy skies expected by the morning hours. Cloud cover is expected to clear even more, with mostly sunny skies by the late afternoon. With a NW wind expected, high temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 60s across most of the area, except for Long Island which should see high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A few upper 60s cannot be ruled out in the immediate NYC area.

Friday And Saturday: Cooler Temperatures Return

On Friday, a strong high pressure will move into the northern parts of the region from Canada, bringing a strong cold air mass along with it. The worst of the cold will be felt in the northern Northeast, where high temperatures in northern Maine will stay in the lower to mid 30s, though temperatures in the area are still expected to slightly cool down, with high temperatures peaking in the lower to mid 50s across most of the area and a few upper 50s possible, especially west of NYC.

At the same time that this high pressure moves into the region, a strong storm will develop in the central United States. This storm will move towards the area, bringing increasing clouds on Friday night and mainly cloudy skies on Saturday. A relatively tight gradient is expected between the high pressure and low pressure, and windy conditions are expected to develop, especially in the eastern parts of the area. High temperatures will be cooler than those of Friday, peaking in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area.

Saturday Night – Sunday: Heavy Rain, Thunderstorms, Wind Expected

The storm is expected to begin affecting the area late on Friday afternoon or the evening hours, with showers developing and temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area. Especially between 10 PM and 5 AM, an area of heavy rain and thunderstorms is expected to move through the area, with the heaviest rainfall from NYC and further west where 1 to 2 inches of rain are expected. Gusty winds are expected, with gusts likely to end up in the 40-50 mph range in parts of the area. As the storms approach, temperatures are expected to rise, reaching the lower to mid 50s in the immediate NYC area, and cooling down after the rain ends.

The storm will end on Sunday morning with a few showers possible and skies clearing towards the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will be warmer than those of Saturday, reaching the mid 50s to lower 60s across the area. A breezy west wind is expected.

Monday – Thursday: Warmth To Return

The storm will exit the region on Sunday, however it will fail to pull down any strong cold air mass. High temperatures on Monday are expected to peak in the lower to mid 60s for most of the area, with warmer temperatures returning for Tuesday and potentially Wednesday. As should be expected for something almost a week away, there is uncertainty with the exact timing and track, however a storm may affect the area around Thursday. This storm is expected to track north of the area, meaning that it may bring warm temperatures to the area on Wednesday or Thursday, and while the exact temperatures are uncertain, NYC is likely to reach the 70s at least once, if not more, in the Monday-Thursday time frame. What happens beyond Thursday is still uncertain, however at this time it is unlikely that much colder temperatures will follow this storm.

This is the last update for now as the blog is going on vacation. Few brief updates may be posted over the next week, however the next full update will be posted on Saturday, April 23rd.

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