April 11, 2011 Evening: Storms Approaching

Note: The 5-Day Forecast page was not updated tonight, though other than raising Wednesday’s forecast temperatures, there are no major changes in the forecast at this time.

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8:55 PM: As a warm front moved through the area today, the mainly cloudy skies and fog this morning cleared in the early afternoon for the central and western parts of the area, with temperatures quickly warming. Due to the influence of an onshore south wind, cloud cover and fog, Long Island and southern Connecticut stayed on the cool side today, with temperatures ending up close to the forecast, peaking in the upper 50s in Islip, NY, lower 50s in Montauk, NY, lower 60s in New Haven, CT, and in the lower 50s in New London, CT.

Further west, however, temperatures exceeded the forecast, with widespread lower to mid 80s observed in northern New Jersey. Newark, NJ even reached a summer-like high of 87 degrees! The temperature gradient in NYC was also remarkable, as places such as Central Park reached the lower 80s, while coastal areas of Brooklyn stayed in the 50s.

Forecast for tonight through Wednesday: As a cold front is moving through the region, a line of non-severe thunderstorms formed in eastern Pennsylvania, and is currently affecting the westernmost parts of the area, towards Sussex and Orange counties, with heavy rain and gusty winds. These storms will weaken as they move east, with light rain and thunderstorms expected for the immediate NYC area within the next 1-2 hours.

Most of the thunderstorms, however, are located in the Southeast, south of a low pressure currently in Tennessee. This low pressure will continue to slowly move towards the coast tomorrow, producing a moderate to heavy rainfall event for the Northeast and the Mid Atlantic. As of yesterday, this storm was expected to move just off the coast, however now it is expected to track inland, keeping the majority of the rain west of the area on Tuesday with occasional light to moderate rain expected in the NYC area. Moderate to locally heavy rain is then expected to develop after 12 AM, which will last through Wednesday morning, with occasional showers lasting through Wednesday evening. By the time that the storm ends, at least 3/4 to 1.25 inch of rain is expected across the area, with locally lower or higher amounts.

The next update will be posted tomorrow, discussing a potential heavy rain event for Saturday night in more details.

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