April 10, 2011: Warmth Tomorrow, Rain Likely Mid Week

Note: Today’s discussion will be brief once again, though the 5-Day Forecast page was updated, and a Rain Watch has been issued for parts of the area as well.

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After today brought mainly cloudy skies to the area, a warm front will move through the area tonight, bringing more sunshine for tomorrow which will come along with much warmer temperatures. The exact temperatures were difficult to forecast due to an expected sharp gradient, however 50s and 60s are expected for Long Island and southern CT, with 70s for northern NJ and interior SE NY.

I labeled a large area in northern NJ in the 75-80 degree range, however it is very possible that parts of that area stay below the 75 degree mark, especially further north, or reach the lower 80s, towards the southern parts of the area and potentially into parts of NE NJ.

Wednesday: Storm Now Expected

The cold front will move through on Monday night, bringing showers and thunderstorms, locally strong, to the western parts of the area, where gusty winds are possible with the storms, and plain showers to the eastern parts of the area. Originally, the cold front was supposed to keep on moving offshore with a high pressure moving in on Wednesday, however the models over the last day have trended to showing a cut off low forming and slowly moving up the coast on Tuesday night into Wednesday. There were signs of this yesterday, but it did not appear at first that it would be as close to the coast as it is now expected to be.
As a result, occasional showers are now expected to continue through Tuesday, with steadier rain developing towards the late afternoon or evening hours. Rain will continue through Tuesday night, lasting through Wednesday around noon before starting to weaken. Due to the cloud cover, rain, and cold air associated with the cut off low, high temperatures will be very chilly on Wednesday, with the latest model guidance suggesting highs only in the lower to mid 40s across the area. At this time, I went with warmer highs, expecting mid 40s to lower 50s, however this is still quite chilly for this time of the year. There is still some slight uncertainty with the exact totals, however at least 3/4 to 1.25 inch of rain is expected at this time, with amounts potentially as high as 1.5 inch in the wetter case scenario. Stay tuned for more information on this storm.
By Thursday, the high pressure should arrive with warmer temperatures and mostly sunny skies, however temperatures will not be as warm as originally expected, with 50s expected towards the coastal areas and lower to mid 60s from NYC and further west. Friday should bring slightly cooler temperatures, and a storm is expected to approach the area around Saturday, potentially lasting through Sunday morning, which may produce additional moderate to heavy rainfall for the area. More information will be posted on this storm as details become clearer.

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