April 1, 2011: Warmer Temperatures To Return

Note: The 5-Day Forecast was updated through Tuesday.
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As mentioned yesterday afternoon, the storm was expected to be less significant than the original expectation, with moderate rain for the eastern parts of the area and light snow amounts further west. The storm did end up much less significant, producing less than 1/2 inch of QPF across most of the area, with light snow observed in the northwestern parts of the area producing a general 1 to 4 inches of snow. Wet snow also fell in the immediate NYC area this morning, but failed to accumulate.

After over 10 days of temperatures below average across the area, temperatures will reach the average mark this weekend as a warmer air mass returns, bringing temperatures into the upper 50s for NYC on Sunday. Another storm will then affect the region for Monday and Tuesday, however the latest expectation suggests that in addition to a severe weather risk no longer in place, temperatures may fail to get as warm as they could have.
Weekend Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area with a breezy WNW wind expected. High temperatures will peak in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland, and in the lower to mid 50s for the rest of the area.
Sunday will bring increasing cloud cover with temperatures slightly warmer than tomorrow, in the lower to mid 50s across most of the area and potentially reaching the upper 50s in Newark, NJ. A breezy WNW wind is expected as well.
Monday – Tuesday: Big Warmth/Storms Or Chilly Rain?

Over the last few days, I mentioned the potential for a storm to bring severe weather on Tuesday. The expected storm set up has not changed much since then, and if the timing was supportive it would easily support severe thunderstorms in the area, however a minor change with the storm’s timing, intensity and track has removed the severe weather potential and will likely keep temperatures close to the average, not well above average as suggested yesterday.
Sunday Night/Monday: Sunday night will bring light precipitation into the area, especially after 12 AM. There is the potential that light snow may fall in the higher elevations of Sussex and Orange counties, however no accumulation is expected, and any snow would quickly change over to rain. The rain should mainly end by Monday morning, though mainly cloudy skies will continue through the day on Monday with a few showers possible. Temperatures will steadily rise throughout the day, peaking in the mid 40s to lower 50s by the evening.
Monday Night/Tuesday: The set up of the storm would be a supportive one for severe weather had the timing been supportive, however with the cold front already moving through by Tuesday morning, not Tuesday evening, there will not be much instability with the storm, and the result will be a line of rain and non-severe thunderstorms moving through on Tuesday morning.
Temperatures will continue to steadily rise overnight, eventually peaking in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the area. Cloud cover may briefly clear in the early overnight hours, but will increase as a line of rain and thunderstorms approaches between 2 and 6 AM. With a lack of supportive parameters as the event will take place in the late overnight hours, no severe weather is expected in the area, however thunderstorms are possible. The rain should end by Tuesday afternoon with temperatures steadily dropping into the 50s and 40s.
Had the storm moved through 12 hours slower, the set up would have been supportive for temperatures to surge into the lower 70s as far north as NYC on Tuesday afternoon, which would have been followed by severe thunderstorms in the evening. The 18z NAM/DGEX still had this set up, however with the main models in agreement with the timing and scenario, this scenario is no longer favored.
Stay tuned for more information on this storm with tomorrow’s update, including an update on the longer range.

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