Mar 9, 2011: Heavy Rain Returns Tomorrow

After the mainly sunny and dry conditions yesterday, increasing cloud cover signaled that the dry conditions after the flooding rainstorm on Sunday would not last long, as yet another storm is moving into the area and is currently producing widespread light rain, falling as snow/sleet in the interior parts of the area, where up to 1 inch of snow/sleet is possible. High temperatures peaked in the lower 40s inland and in the lower to mid 40s for the rest of the area, which are slightly cooler than yesterday’s high temperatures.

Even though precipitation is already moving into the area, the worst of the storm will not take place until tomorrow night, when heavy rain and gusty winds will affect the area. By the time that the storm is over, northern New Jersey and southeastern New York will see between 2 to as much as locally 4 inches of rain, leading to even more dangerous flooding in places that are already seeing flooding.

Thursday’s Outlook:

By tomorrow morning, the interior parts of the area will change over to rain, and the entire area will see a light to moderate rain. Through the early afternoon hours, occasional showers will continue. In the afternoon hours, heavy rain will begin moving into Pennsylvania as the low pressure becomes negatively tilted. Light rain will fall in the eastern parts of the area through the evening hours, with light to moderate rain in the immediate NYC area and moderate to heavy rain in the western parts of the area. By the evening, rain totals should be up to 1/4 inch in the eastern parts of the area, between 1/2 and 3/4 inch in the immediate NYC area, and between 3/4 and 1.5 inch in the interior parts of the area.

Along with a breezy ESE wind, temperatures will steady rise throughout the day across the area. The actual temperatures will not peak until the overnight hours, but the highest temperatures during the daytime will be in the evening hours, peaking in the mid 40s north and NE of NYC and in the upper 40s for the immediate NYC area and northern New Jersey.

Thursday Night’s Outlook:

The storm will be slow to move through the region, and with a lot of moisture, widespread heavy rain is expected from NYC and further west on Thursday night. The heaviest rain will focus in eastern Pennsylvania, however the heavy rain will begin slowly moving east into the western parts of the area during the overnight hours, weakening as it reaches the eastern parts of the area by the morning hours. Breezy conditions are also expected across the area. Temperatures are expected to peak in the overnight hours in the mid to upper 40s for most of the area and in the upper 40s to lower 50s for northern New Jersey and the immediate NYC area.

The storm will end on Friday morning from west to east across the area. By the time that the storm ends, rainfall totals between 3/4 and 1.5 inch are possible in Long Island, 1.75 to 2.5 inches in the immediate NYC area, and 2.5 to 4 inches in the western parts of the area. These totals will cause additional flooding, especially west of New York City in places that have been hit hard with flooding from the previous storm. There is still some slight uncertainty with the exact rain totals, however totals over 1.5 inch of rain are expected west of New York City.

Stay tuned for more information on this storm. Updates will be posted throughout the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow, as well as Friday morning.

Longer Range: The long range currently appears to be quiet other than the threat for a potential weak storm around March 15th. The next storm currently expected to affect the area will likely end up between March 17-19, however as this is in the longer range, the smaller details are uncertain. More information will be posted on the longer range as details become clearer.

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