Mar 8, 2011: Additional Flooding, Rain On The Way

After the storm two nights ago hit the area with heavy rain, flooding continues to take places especially north and west of New York City, where rain totals from the storm locally reached 4 to 5 inches of rain. Today brought a return to drier conditions, with mainly sunny skies and high temperatures peaking in the lower to mid 40s inland, mid to upper 40s for the eastern parts of the area, and mostly in the upper 40s for the immediate NYC area.

There will not be much relief from the flooding, as cloud cover will increase tomorrow as yet another storm approaches the region. This storm will also be capable of producing widespread heavy rain and flooding, and by the time that it moves out of the area, rain totals could end up in the 3 to 4 inch range west of New York City, leading to dangerous flooding.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring increasing cloud cover across the area with an east/ESE wind expected. High temperatures will peak in the lower to mid 40s inland, mid to upper 40s in the immediate NYC area, and in the lower to mid 40s for the eastern parts of the area.

Wednesday Night – Friday: Major Flooding, Heavy Rain Expected

Last year, March of 2010 brought two heavy rainfall events for the area, both of them leading to widespread major flooding. This year’s March is becoming a repeat of this, as yet another heavy rain storm will affect the area on Thursday, leading to even bigger flooding concerns in places that were already hit hard with flooding from Sunday’s storm.

On Thursday, as the primary low pressure moves into the Great Lakes, another wave of low pressure will develop further south towards southern Virginia, and will become negatively tilted as it moves through the region, reaching western New York by Friday morning. Rain will first spread across the area late on Wednesday night, with snow to start well north of the area where there will be enough cold air initially. By the morning, a widespread light to moderate rain will affect the area.

Through the day on Thursday, temperatures will steadily rise as the low pressure moves through the Northeast, bringing widespread slow moving heavy rain into the region. Heavy rain is expected to reach New York City and locations further west in the afternoon hours and continue through the overnight hours by 2-4 AM, with heavy rain moving into the eastern parts of the area later in the evening hours. Temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 40s inland and in the upper 40s to lower 50s for the rest of the area in the overnight hours, then drop once the storm ends. Gusty winds are also possible in parts of the area, potentially reaching 40 mph.

By the time that the storm ends, rain totals between 1 and 2 inches are expected for the eastern parts of the area, 1.5 to 3.5 inches for New York City, and 2 to 4 inches west of New York City. West of NYC, where the heaviest rain falls, rain totals may locally exceed 4 inches of rain, which will cause even more flooding in parts of the area. There is still some slight uncertainty with the rain totals, and it is possible that the heavy rain may end up west of the current expectation, however heavy rain is still expected to fall in the area and will likely cause additional flooding. Stay tuned for more information on this dangerous storm and its impact on the area.

Longer Range:

As the storm moves out of the area, dry conditions will return by Friday morning to most of the area with high temperatures rising into the mid to upper 40s for most of the area, with lower to potentially mid 50s in the immediate NYC area. Saturday will bring warmer temperatures for the area with a southwest wind, reaching the mid 50s in the immediate NYC area, followed by a weak storm moving through that will bring light rain on Saturday night but no washout. Sunday will bring drier conditions again with temperatures similar to those on Friday.

Dry conditions will last until Tuesday, when another storm may affect the region. More information will come on this potential storm as details become clearer.

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