Mar 28, 2011: Significant Storm Potential Friday

Note: The 5-Day Forecast was partially updated, through Thursday.

Sunny skies continued once again across the area as temperatures slightly warmed up from yesteday, reaching the lower to mid 40s inlad and in the mid to upper 40s for the rest of the area, which was slightly warmer than expected. Overnight lows also failed to reach the forecast, staying above 20 degrees for most of the area.
With the latest models finally converging on a solution for Wednesday night’s storm, it appears that this storm will stay to the south of the area, bringing no more than scattered rain/snow showers for the southern parts of the area. By Friday and Saturday, however, it appears that a more significant storm may affect the region, and while there continues to be a lot of uncertainty regarding the smaller details of the storm, there is the potential for additional rain and potentially snow to fall in the area on Friday/Saturday.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:
After chilly temperatures tonight, which will drop into the lower to upper 20s except for NYC, which should see lows in the lower 30s, tomorrow will bring mostly to partly sunny skies across the area with a breezy NW wind expected once again. High temperatures will peak in the lower to mid 40s inland and in the mid to upper 40s for the rest of the area, and places especially near NYC and further southwest may even reach the 50 degree mark.

Wednesday And Beyond: Storm To South, Another Storm On Saturday
On Wednesday, the models originally suggested that a storm might track far north enough to bring light rain/snow to the area with accumulations possible inland. As today’s models began converging on a solution, however, they trended well south of their solutions yesterday, and now keep most of the area dry other than a few rain/snow showers. I reflected this in the 5-Day Forecast, showing mostly cloudy skies with no precipitation for the area on Wednesday night.
By Friday, the models have consistently been showing a storm moving up the coast, however where it goes from there, how strong it gets and the timing are still uncertain, with solutions ranging from a significant snowstorm north and west of NYC on the 18z GFS to a storm missing the area to the east of the GGEM. There are still a lot of uncertainties with this storm, but with issues such as a lack of a strong cold air mass, at this time a mostly rain storm is favored over snow for NYC and the coastal areas, with a snow potential further inland. Snow is still a possibility in NYC though, and it’s possible that the storm fails to become anything significant like some models have been showing, and the models will be monitored over the next several days. Stay tuned for more information on this storm.

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