Mar 20, 2011 Morning Update

***This post is from 2011. Please visit the MAIN PAGE to see the latest forecasts for the NYC area.

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A full update will be posted later tonight, however there are two updates with the latest expectations for this week, which will be discussed in more details tonight.

Tomorrow’s Storm: Snow, Sleet To Start

Precipitation is expected to move in from west to east betwee 3 and 8 AM. With cold air initially in place, precipitation will begin as snow north and west of NYC as well as southern Connecticut, and even New York City may see a few flakes early in the storm. As warmer air moves in, precipitation will change over to sleet, then rain, ending between noon and 5 PM from west to east.

Little to no accumulations are expected in the immediate NYC area, however 1 to 3 inches of snow and sleet are expected towards Sussex and Orange counties, and a Light Snow Alert has been issued. This storm will be discussed in more details tonight.

Wednesday Night: Rain For NYC, Snow Further North

Today’s models have continued the north trend that began with yesterday’s morning models, with the GFS and ECMWF models now showing rain for NYC with a track slightly north of the one I used for last night’s scenario map. The GGEM has a significant snowstorm for northern New Jersey, and the NAM/DGEX also show a southern solution, however I expect both the GGEM and NAM to trend north to show mostly rain for NYC. With tonight’s update, I will explain in more details the two possibilities for this storm, the more likely one being rain with some snow for NYC and northern New Jersey with the best risk of a moderate snowstorm in interior southern Connecticut, and the less likely one being a light to moderate snow event for northern NJ and NYC.

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