Mar 16, 2011: Warmth Returns For Now

***This post is from 2011. Please visit the MAIN PAGE to see the latest forecasts for the NYC area.

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After a moderate rainstorm that brought anywhere from 1/4 to as much as 3/4 inch of rain this morning cleared the area, partly to mostly cloudy skies were observed as temperatures went up into the mid 50s for the western parts of the area, mid 50s to lower 60s for the immediate NYC area, and the lower 50s for the eastern parts of the area. Sky cover will continue to clear, with temperatures warming up additionally tomorrow and on Friday, reaching the lower 70s for parts of the area by Friday.

Cooler temperatures are expected to return by Saturday, with more rain expected to affect the area between Monday and Wednesday night of next week, however there are indications that there may be a cold spell to follow this storm, with below average temperatures a likely possibility by next weekend.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring mostly sunny skies to the area as a high pressure moves towards the Southeastern US, resulting in a WSW wind. High temperatures will be warmer than today, peaking in the lower to upper 50s for the eastern parts of the area, and in the lower 60s from NYC and further west. A few mid 60s are possible southwest of NYC.

Friday – Sunday: Warm, Then Cooling Down

As a storm moves towards Maine on Friday, it will pull additional warm air into the region, resulting in even warmer temperatures. There is some slight uncertainty with exactly how warm it gets, which also depends on the cloud cover as mostly cloudy skies are expected in the morning, however the immediate NYC area is expected to reach the 70 degree mark. In the warmer case scenario, high temperatures may even get close to the mid 70s in Newark. The latest models, however, have been trending colder, with the latest NAM run only bringing high temperatures into the mid to upper 60s for NYC. For today’s update, I went along with the warmer scenario, though it is a possibility that Friday’s forecast highs may have to be slightly lowered with tomorrow’s update. A breezy WSW wind is expected, with gusts up to 20-30 mph expected.
Overnight, the cold front will move through, bringing curolder overnight temperatures back into the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area, and some light rain is expected late overnight into Saturday morning. Saturday will bring colder temperatures, peaking in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the area.
Colder temperatures will briefly return on Saturday night as a high pressure moves into the area along with a cold air mass. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s away from New York City along with mostly clear skies, with Sunday’s highs warming up into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Next Week: More Rain, Then Cold?

As the high pressure exits the area, cloud cover will increase again on Sunday night as another storm moves in from the west. There is uncertainty with the exact details, however at least light to moderate rain is expected for Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, it appears that the main storm should begin to move through, however as usual, there is uncertainty with the exact track. The 12z GFS took this storm far south enough to bring a snowstorm to Washington DC and Baltimore, a solution which I am considering an outlier at this time. For now, I am going along with a track that would take the storm through the central Northeast, however this track is subject to changes as details become clearer.
This storm is expected to bring additional rainfall to the area, and if the track I am currently using verifies, mild temperatures will return, though they will not be anywhere near as warm as Friday is expected to be. There is consensus with the models for the storm to move out of the area on Thursday, but it appears that a cold spell may follow this storm.
A -NAO is expected to develop, and the GFS and ECMWF models have been consistently showing a cold air mass dropping into the region by Friday and Saturday of next week. While the GFS is likely overdoing the cold air, showing high temperatures below freezing for the area, I am thinking at this time that a cold spell is likely, which may bring below average temperatures. Stay tuned for more information on next week’s storms and the potential cold spell that may follow.

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