Mar 15, 2011: Taste Of Spring On Friday

***This post is from 2011. Please visit the MAIN PAGE to see the latest forecasts for the NYC area.


After cold temperatures this morning, dropping as low as the lower 20s for the western parts of the area, temperatures warmed up into the upper 40s to lower 50s from NYC and further west, with lower to mid 40s east of New York City. The area is currently seeing cloudy skies as a storm is starting to move in, which will bring moderate to heavy rain but nowhere near as severe as the last two storms, clearing the area by tomorrow afternoon.

Temperatures will warm up significantly by the end of this week, even reaching the lower 70s in the immediate NYC area on Friday. This warmth will not be here to stay, however, as there are indications that a colder pattern may develop in the longer range.

Tomorrow’s Outlook: More Rain

Light rain is currently moving into the western parts of the area, and is expected to continue spreading overnight into the rest of the area. By 2-5 AM, a widespread moderate rain is expected to affect most of the area. The rain will then become locally heavy at times tomorrow morning, especially near the immediate NYC area. The storm will be quick to exit, starting to end west of NYC by 10 AM, with most of the rain expected to have cleared the immediate NYC area by noon-2 PM.

By the time that the storm ends, rain totals between 1/2 and 3/4 inch are expected across the area, with the potential for amounts locally as high as 1 inch. While this storm’s rain totals are nowhere near as high as the previous storms, there will still be enough rain to add to the ongoing flooding in the western parts of the area. This will be the last significant rain event for a while, however, as the next storm on Friday is expected to stay to the north of the area, which is discussed in more details below.

Temperatures tomorrow are expected to remain in the 40s to lower 50s until the storm ends, then will rise into the lower 50s for the eastern parts of the area, and in the mid to upper 50s for the western parts of the area. It is possible that places just southwest of NYC reach 60 degrees. East winds are expected in the morning, becoming west by the evening.

Thursday – Saturday: Warm

Once the storm exits, a much warmer air mass will move into the region, resulting in the warmest temperatures across the area since fall. Thursday will bring mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s in the eastern parts of the area, and in the lower to mid 60s for NYC and further west.

With Friday bringing a WSW wind and 850 mb temperatures near 10c, even warmer temperatures are expected. With a storm to the north of the area, partly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures reaching the 60s across the entire area. Temperatures for the western parts of the area are expected to reach the upper 60s, with lower 70s for most of the immediate NYC area. While unlikely at this time, there is even the potential for places just southwest of NYC to end up just under the 75 degree mark.

This warmth will only be short lasting. The storm to the north of the area will bring a cold front through, with high temperatures on Saturday only in the lower to mid 50s across the area. Dry conditions will last temporarily, with the next storm expected to bring rain to the area on Tuesday, March 22nd.

More information will be posted in the longer range as details become clearer, including the potential for a colder pattern to develop by the last week of March.

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