Mar 12, 2011: Light Rain Returns Wednesday

***This post is from 2011. Please visit the MAIN PAGE to see the latest forecasts for the NYC area.


– The 5-Day Forecast page was updated for the immediate NYC area and the interior area.


Drier conditions have returned for the area after the rain storm that affected the region from Thursday through yesterday morning with more heavy rain and flooding. Today brought generally partly cloudy skies, with high temperatures peaking in the lower to mid 50s across most of the area with mid to upper 50s in the immediate NYC area.

The week coming up ahead is expected to be a mainly quiet one other than some light to moderate rain on Wednesday, however temperatures are expected to warm up by the late week, and on Friday may even get as high as the mid to upper 60s in the immediate NYC area.

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring partly cloudy skies to the area along with a breezy west wind, especially towards the coast where winds may gust up to 30 mph. High temperatures will be slightly cooler than today, in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland, lower to mid 50s in the immediate NYC area, and in the upper 40s to lower 50s for Long Island and southern Connecticut.

Overnight, as a colder air mass returns into the area and a high pressure also moving into the region, cloud cover will clear up with low temperatures dropping into the mid 20s to lower 30s for places north and west of New York City.

Monday – Wednesday: Chilly Start, A Little Rain On Wednesday

With a high pressure moving into the area, the week will begin on a chilly note, with mostly sunny skies expected for Monday along with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s across most of the area. A few upper 40s cannot be ruled out southwest of NYC.

The high pressure is then expected to move into the area on Monday night, which will result in clear skies by Tuesday morning, with low temperatures by the morning expected to reach the lower to mid 20s inland and in the mid 20s to lower 30s for the rest of the area. As the high pressure moves to the east of the area on Tuesday, a SSE wind is expected, which will lead to the warmest temperatures across the area being in the western areas (NW New Jersey, Orange County) where high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures in the immediate NYC area will peak in the mid to upper 40s, with lower to mid 40s expected in the eastern parts of the area.

Wednesday’s Storm: By Tuesday night, however, cloud cover will increase as the next storm approaches. Yesterday, there was a lot of uncertainty with this storm, with the general consensus pointing towards a weak storm staying well to the south of the area on Tuesday with a weak cold front moving through on Wednesday. The latest models, however, show more interaction with these two systems, and have a coastal low moving up the coast for Wednesday, bringing a widespread light to moderate rain for the region.

As a result of this change, I introduced a 90% chance of rain in the forecast for Wednesday. This will not be a washout, but rather a light to moderate rain with rain totals expected to end up in the 1/4 to 1/2 inch range. Due to cloud cover and rain during the day, high temperatures are likely to stay in the mid to upper 40s, however there is some uncertainty with the high temperatures, which depends on what the storm does. As this is a new change in the forecast, it is possible that some slight changes could be made with tomorrow’s update, however there is high confidence that rain totals will generally be light with this storm, up to 1/2 inch. Stay tuned for more information on this storm.

Thursday – Saturday: Warming Up, Brief Taste Of Real Spring

The last time that the area has reached the mid to upper 60s was in the middle of February, and these temperatures may be reached once again by Friday. As Wednesday’s storm exits, a storm in southern Canada moving east will push the cold air mass out of the region, and with a high pressure expected off the Southeast coast, a much warmer air mass will return into the area. Thursday will bring mostly sunny skies to the area with much warmer temperatures, expected to reach the lower to upper 50s across the area, and in the warmer case scenario may even reach 60 degrees for New York City and places further southwest.

As the storm in southern Canada tracks north of the area on Friday, even warmer temperatures are expected. There is some slight uncertainty with exactly how warm it gets, however temperatures are still expected to reach the 60s in the immediate NYC area, and in the warmer case scenario, high temperatures may reach the upper 60s for NYC with lower 70s just southwest of NYC.

Longer Range: This warm up will be brief, however. The storm in southern Canada will continue to move east, bringing its cold front through the region. No significant precipitation is expected from this cold front at this time, however some showers are still expected, and a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Behind this storm, there is uncertainty with exactly what happens as there usually is beyond the 7-day range, however especially with a -NAO expected to develop, there is the potential for a colder than average pattern to develop for the end of March into early April, unlike last year when temperatures soared to record highs by this time of the year. More information will be posted on the longer range as details become clearer.

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