Mar 10-11, 2011 Storm Updates

Below, storm updates will be posted on the heavy rain event that is currently affecting the area.

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3/11 – 10 PM: Due to technical difficulties, no full update was posted today. The 5-Day Forecast was updated for the Immediate NYC Area and the Interior Areas (NW New Jersey, Orange County in NY).

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10:40 AM: After the last update was posted, additional heavy rainfall moved through the central and western parts of the area, bringing additional rain totals from 3/4 inch to as much as 1.5 inch, ending by 4 to 7 AM. Towards the early morning hours, the rain began shifting east, and affected the rest of Long Island and eastern Connecticut through the rest of the morning hours.

The rain is currently moving out of eastern Long Island and eastern Connecticut, with totals so far apparently between 1/4 inch to 1.25 inches. Rain totals in the immediate NYC area ended up between about 1.75 inches east of NYC to 2 inches in NYC and 3 inches in the north/west suburbs of New York City. The western parts of the area saw amounts generally in the 3 to 4 inch range, with the lowest amounts still over 2 inches. Amounts in western Bergen and Passaic couties even locally reached the 5-6 inch range!

Brief Forecast Update: Skies are expected to clear later today, with high temperatures rising into the mid to upper 50s in the immediate NYC area and in the lower to mid 50s for the rest of the area. Flooding is expected to continue now that this storm is over, fortunately relief is coming for the short range, as no rain is expected until at least Wednesday, when uncertianty increases again. Some models show a weak storm affecting the area between Wednesday and Thursday, others like the GFS show nothing, and the CMC shows a snowstorm for Maryland/Pennsylvania followed by the storm tracking inland and bringing more heavy rain to the area, however the CMC’s performance in its long range has not been very impressive. While a storm is possible in this time frame, at this time heavy rain is unlikely should this storm affect the area. Temperatures will warm up afterwards, potentially reaching the 60s by the late week. More information will be posted on the longer range with tonight’s update.

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11:00 PM: While the heavy rain from this evening has moved out of the area, there continues to be a line of moderate to heavy rain stretching from the coast of eastern New Jersey to New York City, moving due north. The main focus, however, is on the heavy rain southeast of Cape May, NJ and south of Delaware, which will bring even more heavy rain for the western and central parts of the area tonight, and eventually move into the rest of Long Island and Connecticut.

Looking at the observations over the last hour, the rain east of the Delmarva Peninsula has been shifting east, with the heavy rain moving north. For the next hour or so, moderate to locally heavy rain will continue to spread through New Jersey, however by 12-1 AM, the heavy rain will move in from the south, first focusing on western New Jersey/Orange County, NY, then spreading east into the immediate NYC area, and by 1-4 AM the moderate to heavy rain will begin to spread into the rest of Long Island and Connecticut. The expected storm ending time and the rain totals remain unchanged from the previous update.

This is the last update for tonight. The next update will be posted tomorrow morning.

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9:50 PM: Over the last two hours, a steady heavy rain affected the western and central parts of the area, with rain totals in the immediate NYC area so far generally between 1/2 inch east of NYC to 1.25 inches near/just west NYC, with totals in northern New Jersey between 1.25 to as much as 2 inches of rain.

The area of heavy rain that affected the area is currently moving out, with heavy rain expected to continue in north central NJ, the immediate NYC area and southeastern New York over the next 1/2 hour. The rain will temporarily become lighter, however this will not last long, as an area of heavy thunderstorms off the Delmarva Peninsula will move north, affecting northern New Jersey and the immediate NYC area later tonight with more heavy rain, and a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. Long Island and southern Connecticut will stay mainly dry for the main part, with occasional light to moderat rain.

Long Island and southern Connecticut will stay mainly dry with some occasional showers over the next several hours, though they have been expected to stay dry through the early overnight hours. Later tonight, after at least 1-4 AM, heavy rain will begin to move through the rest of Long Island and southern Connecticut, ending by the late morning to early afternoon hours. In northern New Jersey, NYC and southeastern New York, heavy rain will continue through the overnight hours with occasional breaks in the intensity, ending from west to east by 6-10 AM.

Rain Totals: Except for slightly raising the amounts in the eastern parts of the area, there are no changes with the expected rainfall amounts, which will range from 0.75 to 1.25, locally 1.5 inches in the eastern parts of the area, 1.5 to 2.5 inches in the immediate NYC area, locally up to 3 inches towards western Bergen and Rockland counties, and 2.5 to 4 inches in north central NJ, northwestern NJ and Orange county.

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6:50 PM: After a break in the moderate to heavy rain shortly after the last update was posted, widespread moderate to locally heavy rain has resumed for the immediate NYC area and locations further east, with the rain also reaching central Long Island and south central Connecticut. Heavy rain is currently developing in eastern/central New Jersey and is moving north, affecting north central and NE New Jersey as well as Rockland/Orange counties with the heaviest rain, with heavy rain also expected to fall in New York City and western Long Island.

Rain will continue to affect the area through the evening hours, with heavy rain expected through the overnight hours and towards the morning hours for the eastern parts of the area. At this time, other than changing the expected rain amounts in the immediate NYC area to 1.5 to 2.5 inches, there are no changes with the forecast rain amounts, though I will keep an eye on the observations in case there is a change.

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4:00 PM: Throughout the morning and the early afternoon hours, a steady moderate to locally heavy rain affected places west of New York City, with light to moderate rain for New York City and occasional showers east of NYC, where little to no rain fell so far. Rainfall amounts so far are between 1/2 inch to as much as slightly over 1 inch of rain in the western parts of the area and between 0.1 and 0.3 inch in the immediate NYC area.

Currently, light to moderate rain is still falling in the western and central parts of the area, however a dry slot is moving into the area, which will bring lighter rainfall over the next few hours as the heaviest rain continues to affect eastern Pennsylvania. Through the evening hours, similar conditions to the ones currently observed are expected, with light to moderate rain for NYC and further west and isolated showers east of New York City.

The radar image above to the left shows another area of moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms in western Virginia and West Virginia. This area of rain will continue to shift east through the afternoon and evening hours as the low pressure continues to become negatively tilted while moving through Pennsylvania, with the heavy rain reaching the western parts of the area by the early overnight hours. This heavy rain will slowly move east, ending west of NYC by the early morning hours and east of NYC by the late morning hours. By the time that the storm is over, rain totals between 1/2 and 1 inch, locally 1.5 inch, are expected for the eastern parts of the area, between 1.75 and 2.5 inches for the immediate NYC area, locally up to 3 inches towards western Bergen and Rockland counties, and between 2.5 and 4 inches of rain for the western parts of the area.

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